Can We be Optimistic About Rising Seas?
Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotions
Most of us have a natural optimism, a belief that things will work out well. Behavioral scientists refer to this as the optimism bias. The appeal and value are rather self evident. The belief in a positive outcome helps to motivate us to tackle challenges and avoid depression, which can be immobilizing. But just being optimistic can prevent us from addressing a problem. It can encourage a fantasy belief such as “technology will solve this” or some less specific wishful thinking, that ignores the simple physics and geologic history, which now makes the case for inexorable rising seas.
Often I am asked if I am optimistic regarding sea-level rise. The simple answer is “no”, but there are really three questions about rising sea level that allow me to clarify and explain where I do have optimism:
- Will we stop sea-level rise this century?
- Will we recognize the scale of the problem in time to plan and adapt wisely?
- Will we adapt?
#1. The simple answer is that we can no longer stop sea-level rise (SLR) this century. There is far too much heat already stored in the ocean. We have already warmed the global ocean one degree Celsius, nearly two degrees Fahrenheit. More is added daily. Recall that the world is still arguing about the goal and mechanism to stop the warming at two degrees C above pre-industrial, double what we have so far. While warmer will be worse, even at the current elevated temperature, the great ice sheets and glaciers are going to melt for a VERY LONG time, even if we stopped all use of fossil fuels immediately. On our current path, the rate of SLR will very likely accelerate. (For further explanation, see my blog post, https://johnenglander.net/why-melting-ice-and-rising-seas-will-go-exponential/)
The sooner that we get serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and work on other methods to reverse the human-triggered warming, the better. We can slow the process and that should be our highest priority – not just to address rising sea level, but to slow and eventually reverse the myriad effects of a warming planet from high heat days, to agricultural impacts, ocean acidification, wildfires, severe storms, etc. I do believe we can slow the warming, and will, sooner or later. But that will take political resolve and leadership.
Former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, said, “We can govern by leadership or we can govern by crisis.Without leadership, we will continue to find ourselves governing by crisis.” These are apt words for the choices we face.
#2. I do not yet see any evidence that we are planning adequately for future SLR, which I believe could reach as high as ten feet (3 meters) over the next hundred years – and possibly even higher. There are plans for greater “flood resiliency” from New York to San Francisco, to Singapore and the Netherlands – just to name a few locations that are looking at ways to deal with SLR. While I applaud their intentions, generally they are inadequate to the scale of the problem. (Singapore is the lone exception, “thinking big” planning for multi-meter SLR.) Given that buildings and infrastructure typically last 50 – 100 years, we need to begin ASAP to prepare while there is time. It can take decades from identifying the need for major changes to infrastructure and building codes, to the design and engineering, getting permits, answering legal challenges and doing the actual construction. Given the scale of disruption and change required to cope with even five feet of SLR, it could take a long time for adaptation with good planning and execution.
Tackling the challenge of rising sea level can not be done effectively in “baby steps.” It is going to take some giant strides. Hopefully in the next five to ten years, we recognize the accelerating trend, get over our caution and hesitation, overcome cognitive dissonance, and address this unprecedented challenge. I do have some optimism about that.
#3. Phrasing the question this way, does allow me to answer positively with a “yes.” SLR happens incrementally, somewhat like a drip filling a bucket. As the base water level rises, short term flood events during “king tides” and weather-related flooding will get worse, but those recede allowing time to recover and possibly relocate. Fortunately the actual rise of base sea level is slow enough that there is time to get out of harm’s way. In fact, there is no choice. In the end, the sea will win. We will adapt. We will move to higher ground. About that, I can be optimistic.