Trump told Tangier Mayor: rising waters ‘no worries’
President Trump phoned Tangier Island Mayor Eskridge last Monday. According to the Mayor, Trump told him:
“…not to worry about sea-level rise. Your island has been there for hundreds of years, and I believe your island will be there for hundreds more.”
Trump had happened to see a story on CNN television with the Mayor of the small community in the southern Chesapeake Bay. Mayor James “Ooker” Eskridge poignantly describes the Virginia island’s struggle with rising sea levels. On the widely played segment, he made a point about how strongly the island supported President Trump. Apparently that spurred the unplanned phone call from the President. The Mayor had just returned from his work, as a crab fisherman.
I sure hope the Mayor and the 450 residents do not believe the President. Before they build a new school or even remodel their kitchens, they should visit other similar islands in the Chesapeake, particularly Sharps and Holland to get some physical perspective. They will need scuba gear however, or at least a glass bottom boat. (Photo above is of the last house on Holland Island in 2012 just before it sank beneath the waves.)
Sharps Island disappeared beneath the surface in 1962, as did Holland Island in 2010. Only a century ago, Sharps was a thriving community with farms and a hotel. For both, the sinking was a slow process over many decades. The cause was a combination of rising sea level, subsidence and erosion. Tangier Island is following in their path, or perhaps that should be “wake.” The flooding is increasing more rapidly in recent years. It is impossible to ignore. That was the focus of the CNN story that apparently caught the President’s attention.
Global sea level rose an average of about ten inches over the last century, but recent research shows that the rate of sea level rise is greatly accelerating now. That will almost certainly continue as Greenland and other glaciers in the Arctic melt more rapidly, and as certain marine glaciers in Antarctica continue to warm and slide towards the sea in the decades ahead. Sea level rise is estimated to reach as high as eight feet by the end of this century according to the latest NOAA study issued January of this year “Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States.” It is not possible to precisely predict how Greenland and Antarctica will melt and go through collapse, sometimes abruptly – think of that like avalanches or mudslides. What is clear is that our warming world will have smaller ice sheets and higher sea level; not just on Tangier Island, but everywhere.
Tangier Island and the region of the southern Chesapeake are experiencing even worse sea level rise than most locations. Land in this region, from Norfolk all the way up through Baltimore, is subsiding, or going down, compounding the effects of sea level rise. The only realistic way for Tangier Island to be there hundreds of years from now is to apply extraordinary adaptation measures.
To save the island for example, metal sheet pile could be driven in around the island, in effect creating a new steel shoreline. It would need to protrude high enough so that it stayed above the surface, either at least the eight feet referenced in that NOAA report, or done in such a way that it can be extended upward over time as sea level rises. Behind such a perimeter, all the buildings on the island will need to be raised too, or they will be down in a well, unable to see or even easily access the waters of the Bay. That will require substantial fill to elevate the land. Just to consider all options, the whole island also could be put on floats, theoretically feasible, but also questionable in terms of practicality.
Such extreme measures to sustain this small historic community will have to be evaluated by the residents, by the Federal government and the state. Such a process would be a valuable exercise however, as it could be a precedent for much larger areas as they too are increasingly threatened by rising sea level. Perhaps we could elevate and protect the entire small Tangier Island. But what about Norfolk, or Annapolis? Miami, St. Petersburg, etc., etc., etc.
The reality of hundreds of communities like Tangier Island makes this issue real. Partisanship and rhetoric will not solve the problems. Recent decisions to rescue other communities from erosion such as Shishmaref in Alaska and Isle de St. Charles in Louisiana are already setting examples. But at expense to the US taxpayers of roughly a million dollars a household, they are examples that should give us pause as we enter this new era.
This is not some theoretical debate. The sea is rising. It threatens communities all over the U.S. and globally. The shoreline has just started to move and will continue for centuries. The warmer the planet gets, the faster that the ice on Greenland and Antarctica will melt raising sea level. Efforts like the Paris Climate Accord are important to slow the warming, but we have passed a tipping point. Sea level rise is no longer stoppable this century.
While we work to slow the warming, we need to prepare and adapt. It must be noted that the President recently announced his intention to disengage from the Paris Agreement, which likely would reduce the effort to slow global warming and thus accelerate the melting ice and rising sea.
We cannot argue with a rising sea. We must rise with the tide. Just believing the shoreline will be the same as prior centuries is delusional. It’s time to prepare for the future. There are three options: elevate, relocate, or inundate. While painful and disruptive there are positive aspects of rising sea level. Unlike tornados, tsunamis, earthquakes, and fires that can cause death and destruction with almost no warning, we have decades of notice that the ocean is on the move upwards. If we ignore the facts, shame on us. Sadly we will also earn the shame and scorn of future generations if we fail to adapt. The effects are already being felt as that story on CNN about Tangier Island well documented. Today, all smart coastal communities need to begin planning for the first meter (~3 feet) of higher sea level ASAP.
That is why we are working to get the International Sea Level Institute fully operational. It is a nonprofit organization that promotes understanding, planning, and adapting to rising seas. It is looking for founding sponsors. For more information or to donate visit www.sealevelinstitute.org.