SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN article confirms sea level rise disaster
If you have access to the June issue of SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN — cover story “12 Events That Will Change Everything” — look at “Polar Meltdown” page 45. Excellent piece by David Biello, succinctly confirms devastating impact of near-certain rising sea level this century and beyond. Same perspective as my forthcoming book.
Some of his key points:
- Sea level rising quickly due to melt in Greenland, the Antarctic, and glaciers, plus expansion of seawater due to warming
- Beaches on US East Coast lost average 65 feet (20 m) of width last century
- Plan for 3 feet (1 meter) sea level height increase this century
- When all the ice melts, the ocean will be at least 210 feet (65 m) higher than present
- Will have Ice free Arctic and different coastline this century
- 200 million people living within 3 feet (1 m) of the sea will be displaced
- 8 out of the 10 Mega cities will essentially have to move
- Surprisingly there will be variations in the added ocean height, anomalies mostly due to changing gravitational distribution
He notes the practical certainty of the ocean rise, even if we get greenhouse gas emissions under control due to the long lag time for heat equalization. (Some estimates are that it takes about 700 years for the ocean temperatures to fully adjust to warmer atmospheric temperatures.)
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN rates the 12 Events on a 5 level scale in terms of probability each will happen. This one got a 4 out of 5 — “LIKELY” one of the strongest of the twelve events predicted.
My study of this indicates that the 1 meter estimated rise this century will continue to be bumped upwards as the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt faster.
It will take centuries or even a thousand years for this to play out, but sea level rise is effectively a one way ride. We need to start taking it seriously.