San Francisco Raises Sea Level Rise Projections
Last week San Francisco published a new report, “Sea Level Rise: Vulnerability and Consequences Assessment.” This updated 2020 document report is well done. It’s very readable and well illustrated, so recommended for anyone interested.
With all such reports, I immediately look to see what height of sea level rise they consider for safe planning. In this case San Francisco uses 5.5 feet of sea level rise by 2100, plus allowance for 3.5 feet of storm surge and extreme high tide. That’s a total of 9 feet (2.75 meters) above present sea level. All things considered, that’s rather good, so kudos to those responsible.
Though I had no involvement with this study, I have some personal perspective on their journey to embrace these forward looking guideline. Starting just after the publication of my book High Tide On Main Street in October 2012, I was invited to give many briefings to officials and organizations in the Bay Area, starting with “BCDC”, the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. Over several years I gave more than a dozen briefings and workshops including: Google HQ, San Mateo County leadership, Port of San Francisco Board of Commissioners, the Bay Planning Coalition, and the City of San Francisco.
At the time, the general guidance in the Bay Area was to plan for three feet of sea level rise by the end of century. My message explained why sea level rise could not be stopped and why the official estimates were almost certainly low. My guidance was simple: Plan for the first three feet of sea level rise as soon as possible and for as much as two meters (about seven feet) by the end of the century. The message got a sober reception, but stimulated lots of discussion. A few pushed back quite hard. Accepting and embracing sea level rising two meters (seven feet) or more this century is difficult and can take time to process.
It’s now encouraging to see how San Francisco has raised it’s understanding and planning. If anything San Francisco and the greater Bay Area are ahead of most communities with this assessment of their sea level vulnerability. The journey is not ended. The news from Greenland and Antarctica continues to be ominous as readers of my weekly blog and news digest know well. This new San Francisco report clearly acknowledges that reality too. Where it states the current guidance level for five and a half feet of sea level rise by the year 2100, they note that’s based on scientific findings as of 2017. They specifically note that will need to be monitored, possibly to raise their projections even further.
Adaptation is a journey.