John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

2017 was a year like no other in so many ways –– including a year of monumental flooding all over the world. It should be seen as a wake-up call, or perhaps “Watershed Moment.” Flooding reached new heights buoyed by record rain, and powerful storms and rising sea level. ˙Here are some highlights from the year:

• January set the stage with US Government report “Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios” raising the upper projection this century to over 8 feet, noting that there were uncertainties that could cause further increases.
• For the 3rd year in a row, global average temperature in 2016 set a new record high.
• Greenland continues with unprecedented melting.
  • In April NASA photographed a surprising and massive crack in the huge Petermann Glacier at the far north, the coldest area of the island.
  • Abnormal rainfall in June thawed permafrost, causing a huge mudslide in Northwest Greenland, washing away 11 homes in a tsunami-like event.
  • Explosive growth of algae in Greenland due to warming, darkens the ice, substantially increases the melt rate.
• Antarctica, continues to lag behind Greenland in melting, but is accelerating and holds seven times the potential rise in sea level.
  • 100 mile long iceberg “A68” broke off in July — though not directly adding to sea level, breakup of ice shelves allows glaciers to slide into the Bay which will eventually raise global sea level.
  • Reports from the previous year showed ponding water atop the glaciers, very ominous for glacial collapse, plus rainfall which is essentially unknown in Antarctica.
  • The “Doomsday Glacier” a well researched and illustrated article by Jeff Goodell in Rolling Stone Magazine receives mainstream attention describing Thwaites Glacier and the mechanism for its potential sudden collapse, raising sea level dramatically.
• In July new analysis of satellite data resets rate of global average sea level rise to 3.9 mm per year, up from 3.2 mm (Scientific American Magazine)
• August and September saw severe storms Harvey, Irma, and Maria cause absolute devastation from Barbuda and Puerto Rico to St. Maartens in the Caribbean and to Florida, Texas, and more in the continental U.S.
  • Harvey set a new record for a single-storm with over $198 billion dollars of damage.
  • With peak rainfall of more than 60 inches (150 cm) Harvey was the wettest storm ever recorded.
• Globally last year witnessed truly catastrophic floods, for example, India, the Philippines, and Britain. Since warmer oceans evaporate more, record-setting rain events are part of the new normal, adding to the design challenge to keep our heads above water.
• In September and December Congress kept postponing renewal of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) which was up for its 5 year renewal. The continuing financial losses with subsidized rates, politically inspired regulations, and ever-worsening floods are a recipe for disaster. (My recent blog post had an analysis of the problems and some solutions.)
• Newsweek Magazine in December described possible disaster scenarios, e.g. : “236 million people at risk of homes being permanently flooded this century”, a good example of coverage beyond scientific publications.
• In December Moody’s credit rating service warned cities to address climate risk or face credit rating downgrades.

As a trend, flooding is becoming more severe as the years pass. It occurs in all coastal communities, large and small, wealthy and poor. Rising sea level raises the baseline, inch by inch. As sea level raises the daily normal ocean heights, it means that future storms, rainfall, runoff, and extreme high tides in vast coastal regions will all set new high water marks with wider areas of flooding. Our instinct is to worry about and recover from those short-term extreme events while staying rather oblivious to the creeping upward rise in base ocean height. It is hard to keep in mind that the melting land-ice from Greenland to Antarctica and from Alaska to the Alps is adding to sea level like the drip, drip, drip that can fill a tub with astonishing speed.

Even with the most ambitious fulfillment of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, all the forecasts are for sea level to keep rising, primarily due to the excess heat already stored in the oceans. We must start thinking bigger and taking action now. Over the coming years and decades we can boldly design new cities and infrastructure. It will take leadership, knowledge, planning and adaptation. It is time to safeguard our communities and economies now and to plan for our future and create a legacy for generations to come.

Announcing New Nonprofit: The International Sea Level Institute

To fulfill this critical mission, I am pleased to announce the new nonprofit International Sea Level Institute, a “think tank” and policy center – for unbiased, non-partisan global leadership and best practices in guiding society to understand inevitable sea level rise, and begin adaptation planning. We will tackle the challenge of rising sea level and increased flooding by:

• assembling and explaining the latest science, in conventional risk-based terms.
• convening or facilitating multi-party “task forces” to address specific challenges to plan for adaptation to higher sea level, anywhere in the world, as a fee-based service.
• encouraging smart private and public-sector policies with short and longer-term perspectives.
• work with select professions, educating them so they can understand the implications for their field, and work to develop realistic solutions.
• being a respected public voice advocating for “intelligent adaptation” as a positive approach to an extremely challenging problem.

To accomplish this, we will work with planners, engineers, architects, lawyers, financiers, legislators, investors, business leaders, and the public to become informed and to develop and implement realistic solutions. Arrangements are being finalized with several professional societies to educate their members giving them the expertise needed to understand and find solutions.

We are in the process of raising funds to establish full operation in 2018. If you can make an end of year donation, please consider helping this important effort and join me in making a donation today. (US taxpayers should be entitled to tax deductible donations.) If you know someone who might want to make a substantial founders level investment, please contact me directly at  jenglander@sealevelinstitute.org.

To learn more about the Institute, visit the website, www.sealevelinstitute.org where there is a short video. Please consider sharing this message with your networks.

We need to keep our heads above water in 2018 and beyond.