John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Green and Sustainable Will Not Stop Rising Sea Level

Most of us today strive to be more “green” and sustainable. Efforts range from reducing our energy use and our “carbon footprint”, to advancing the use of renewable energy and recycled materials. Good as these efforts are, they often distract us from recognizing the brutal reality, what I call the “coming coastal crisis.”

Sea level will keep rising even if everyone on the planet is 100% green and sustainable. In fact even if we somehow magically figured out how to make energy without any carbon emissions, and capped CO2 levels at the current 400 ppm, the oceans will still get higher, changing our coastlines. These are the facts.

Sea level has moved up and down in long term cycles with the ice ages, roughly 350 feet, every hundred thousand years. For the last few thousand years global temperature, sea level and the shoreline were quite stable, fooling us into thinking they were fixed in place. Over the last century or two, higher amounts of greenhouse gases have trapped enough extra heat to raise the average ocean and air temperature by 1.5 degrees F (0.85 C). About 90% of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is stored in the sea. A warmer planet means that the ice sheets and glaciers will continue to melt, raising global sea level.

We have now broken out of the natural pattern that goes back several million years. Because sea level has not been higher in 120,000 years, many doubt it will happen. Regardless of what we want to believe, sea level will get higher decade by decade for centuries. Ice melts at 32 degrees regardless of political ideology. We can slow the rate of rise — which we should do, but we can not stop it. If we do not deal with the energy challenge, the oceans will rise even faster, moving the coastline inland even more quickly.

The fact is that we need to begin adapting to the rising sea level and the shorelines that are just starting to shift. Help share the understanding that we must begin adapting to the new era of rising seas, something totally without precedent in human civilization.

At the same time, let’s work to slow the rate of warming — the popular effort to be more sustainable in our everyday lives, and to find technology for low carbon means of producing energy

[Note this Essay by John Englander is being republished from LinkedIN – April 10.]

By John Englander June 18, 2014 Sea Level Rise

2 Comments

Glenn Klotz

- 11 years ago

Sea level is and has been rising now for over a century

Sea level has already rose over a foot here along the So. Jersey coast over the last century. It’s just in the last few decades that we’ve become aware of why that’s been happening. In So. Jersey we have a double whammy though, not only is the Ocean rising at an accelerating pace , but the land along the coast is also subsiding ( sinking) as well at almost the same rate. These two factors are making the sea rise seem even more drastic than it really is. The combined effect will mean that So. Jersey is going to return to being sea bottom the way it was in the last interglacial (the Eemian over 120K yrs. ago) that much faster than many other of Earth’ sinking coasts and islands. Unfortunately, as Mr. Englander says, nothing is going to stop this process now. Sadly, in NJ the leadership at all levels is still in denial about these basic facts. Many of these folks actually believe they can somehow mitigate this with engineering. Much of the so called NJification of the coast over the past century with jetties, groins, seawalls , bulkheading, breakwaters and now beach replenishment are failed attempts to deal with this phenomenon. Sooner or later my prediction is the rate of sea rise will suddenly spike up in a very short time frame and have to be dealt with. Right now the 21st century looks like when this sudden jump might happen. Added to all this are warming intensified storms, some being trapped by the starting to destabilize upper altitude wind structure around the Arctic. Thus, the scene is being set for even more devastating Sandy like storms in the near future slamming the coast on top of the rising sea and sinking land. All of this combined will eventually start the move away from the coasts. A remnant of very wealthy people will remain to the end. Largely, because they can afford to self insure and rebuild endlessly if need be. My guess is, within a few hundred yrs. though everyone will have left and the coast will still be moving inland.

John

- 11 years ago

Glenn — as I have observed

Glenn — as I have observed before, I truly think you have become visionary on this issue. The challenge is how high, how soon — and what do we do to adapt in the decades ahead. Actually I am starting to think that looking at quarter centuries may be the better “unit” of time. A decade may be too short and a century too long. A quarter century hits the middle and happens to be essentially the span of a generation.

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