World Bank/UN Natural Disaster Report minimizes climate impacts
A new report by the World Bank and United Nations recommends economical ways to minimize global losses from natural disasters that could triple to $185 billion by the end of century, but notes that EXCLUDES CLIMATE CHANGE. It then adds a sentence that climate change could add $28-68 billion more, just from tropical cyclones. (You can read it yourself in the first 4 paragraphs of their press release pasted below.)
This sounds like really good information if you reside with Alice in a place called Wonderland. Consider that the conservative forecast for sea level rise this century is 3 feet (1 m), with an ever increasing chance of double that. The estimates keep increasing as the melt rates in Greenland and parts of the Antarctic increase.
A 3 foot sea level rise pretty much wipes out Bangladesh, as well as many other coastal regions — including South Florida, where I happen to live. But this report uses cities like Bangladesh, describing the benefits of proper planning whereby schools can be planned to do double duty as cyclone shelters, not a bad idea by itself.
Given that sea level rise is a relatively easy aspect of climate change forecast, and that even if we stop all greenhouse gas emissions today, that sea level will rise for an estimated 500 years (Solomon, 2009) is this report solving a problem or adding to it.
I see it as adding to the tendency to ignore the nearly inevitable changing coastline this century, which encourages the investment of more infrastructure.
I understand the need in the short term. We are not simply going to relocate Miami or Bangladesh tomorrow. But the more we get reports like this that say, “this does not allow for climate change impacts”, or “we could add $28-68 billion to allow for a single aspect of climate change – cyclones” the more we are adding to the surreal perception of the future.
The shoreline has not moved much in almost 6,000 years. That is why we believe it’s permanent. But it’s moved 400 feet up and down many times in natural cycles. And after a 6,000 “snooze” in one spot that beast is on the move again — upwards this time. Just 8 inches the last century. But the speed of rise has doubled in the last 30 years. Intelligent analysis says 3-7 feet are realistic this century. (Rahmstorf 2010).
The World Bank and UN seem to encourage us to bury our head in the sand. Better not keep it buried too long; that beach will soon be underwater.
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WASHINGTON, D.C., November 11, 2010 – A new joint report from the World Bank and the United Nations says that annual global losses from natural disasters could triple to $185 billion by the end of this century, even without calculating the impact of climate change. Climate change could then add $28-$68 billion more in damages each year from tropical cyclones alone. The report also says that the number of people exposed to storms and earthquakes in large cities could double to 1.5 billion by 2050.
The 250-page report, Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention, was released in Washington. Targeted directly at the world’s finance ministers, it stresses that “prevention pays but you do not always have to pay more for prevention”.
The report outlines a number of measures to prevent death and destruction from natural hazards such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and flooding. These measures are almost stunning in their simplicity and common-sense approach. For example, governments can make information about hazards and risks easily accessible. Providing land titles reduces the possibility of eviction or demolition, and encourages individuals to invest in safer structures. Removing rent controls restores incentives for landlords to maintain buildings. And, reorienting existing public spending to prioritize day-to-day operations and maintenance – mending pot-holes, painting steel bridges, keeping drains clear – would increase prevention. Undertaking these measures does not necessarily require governments to spend more, says the report, but to spend better.
“This report presents necessary evidence and a compelling case for our client countries to reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards so that they can develop in sustainable and cost-effective way,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick.