Turkeys On The Shoreline?
Yesterday — Thanksgiving Day — the New York Times ran a big feature, “Perils of Climate Change Could Swamp Coastal Real Estate“, by Ian Urbina about the inevitable decline of coastal real estate values in the face of unstoppable sea level rise. As I read this on America’s “Turkey Day”, the slang connotation of turkey — an inept, stupid person — seemed to have some relevance, though I set that aside as I read the thoughtful article. I am pleased to have assisted Ian with his research over the past few months.
Urbina has pieced together a very good description of the complexity of coastal real estate values in the face of inexorable rising sea level. He describes the catastrophe that can now be seen by some, along with the fierce denial, delay, and delusion that is practiced by most homeowners, local governments, the real estate sector, the financial sector, and the Federal government.
From my work I know that a few homeowners, investors, communities and leaders involved with national security interests are starting to look at the profound problems presented by ever-rising seas. A few ‘early adopters’ have already moved to higher ground — usually without telling friends or neighbors why. In public meetings from Florida to Maryland to California it is clear that more coastal residents are starting to pay attention. We might think of this as Act 1, Scene 2 of a play.
As Urbina’s article suggests, the question is just how will coastal values fall? It quotes an economist for Freddie Mac – the mortgage giant – on the key question of whether the balloon of sky-high coastal values will deflate slowly, or at some point with a “pop”:
“Will the value of the house decline gradually as the expected life of the house becomes shorter?” he wrote. “Or, alternatively, will the value of the house — and all the houses around it — plunge the first time a lender refuses to make a mortgage on a nearby house or an insurer refuses to issue a homeowner’s policy?”
In fact from a global view, that may be the “64 trillion dollar question”. No one can know the answer. It depends in part on extreme weather events like Superstorm Sandy that suddenly make people aware of coastal vulnerability. It also depends on how quickly the current warming causes an abrupt collapse of one of the super glaciers in Greenland or Antarctica, the only factor that can cause sudden significant sea level rise. On a recent trip to Greenland I saw mounting evidence that we are already in a new era of climate. Yet no one can precisely predict occurrences of abrupt glacial collapse similar to the impossibility of precisely forecasting avalanches and other major geophysical events.
Ultimately the timing to melt the polar regions depends on how much heat we pump into the Earth system, largely determined by the level of greenhouse gases (GHG) trapping heat. That will be determined by global policies and actions about energy. As many have noted the US is only part of that calculation. China, India, Europe, South America, and Africa all share key roles in that global equation.
Why Sea Level Rise is Unstoppable
We have already warmed our planet by one and a half degrees Fahrenheit (about one degree Celsius). Even the most ambitious goals coming out of the Paris Climate talks last year only aim to cap the warming at double the current level, meaning there is no hope to stop the ice from melting in the coming decades. Simple physics dictates that a warmer planet will have less ice and higher sea level regardless of political rhetoric, short-sighted business priorities, or wishful thinking for a technologic solution.
We are all part of a giant experiment. To see how quickly seven plus billion of us can melt the ice, raise sea level, shift the shoreline, recognize the problem and react. To date we have accomplished relatively little in terms of what needs to be done to be ready for sustained higher sea level. As I said at the conclusion of my TEDx talk, “We have time to adapt, but we have no time to waste.”
At first I was surprised the Times ran this piece on Thanksgiving. I soon realized that such a day with the time off and a large meal to digest may have been perfect for such a thought provoking piece. Thinking back to the slang connotation, hopefully we will begin adapting to SLR in time, so that we do not come to see ourselves as turkeys.