John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

President Trump’s decision on June 1 to withdraw from the 195 nation Paris Climate Agreement received heated (pun intended) responses globally due to concerns about increased global warming. Colors on this background map depict average temperature increases for the five years ending 2015, compared to the prior century.

With some hesitation, I will add my voice to the chorus about President Trump’s decision last Thursday to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. My readers know I keep clear of politics. In my book High Tide on Main Street and all my work since I have carefully avoided any political alignment in order to be an impartial voice who explains climate matters clearly. Having received dozens of requests, I will share my take, though I have to warn you, this is not a pretty picture.

To be blunt, humanity is on a path to disaster.  Whether one thinks of our species as God’s work, or some coincidence of the cosmos, we are testing our environmental limits. The “goldilocks conditions” on Earth––not too hot and not too cold––have sustained life here for billions of years. Based on DNA technology, our species, homo sapiens, is now known to have been around for a few hundred thousand years. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_sapiens )

On our present path, by the end of this century, the planet may be as much as eight or nine degrees Fahrenheit (4-5 Celsius) warmer than the last several millennia. As a point of reference that is precisely the difference between the last ice age and now. That is a BIG deal. The ecosystem as we know it will not be able to withstand such a dramatic temperature increase. It is hard to predict all the environmental upheaval that will ensue. Frankly, rising sea level, my specialty, is not even the worst of the problems. Sure it will have dramatic impacts on our coastal communities but it will not be nearly as deadly as the other climatic impacts. Weird extreme weather, deviating from centuries of stable patterns, will likely have a devastating effect on agriculture productivity, better known as our food supply, potentially causing widespread famine. The change to the pH of the ocean, usually referred to as ocean acidification, will have profound repercussions, far beyond the eventual extinction of wild clams, oysters, and corals. (Their carbonate based structure cannot exist in low pH environments.) The entire ocean food web upon which we depend, will change in unpredictable ways. Some species may thrive, such as sea slugs, and jellyfish, but it will have grave impact on the sea’s ability to feed us. Even the phytoplankton, the tiny algae that produce half our oxygen, appear to be at risk if the warming continues without control.

Our species is extremely versatile and adaptive, yet has fairly narrow limits for a livable environment. Like any species, too hot or too cold, and we die. Even just from a respiratory standpoint, too much carbon dioxide is lethal, though we are far from that limit. Even life-sustaining oxygen has limits for human life. Below about ten percent of normal atmospheric pressure, about 1.5 PSI (pounds per square inch) we lose consciousness, but more than 30 PSI of oxygen (O2) we go into severe convulsions. The point is that the composition of our atmosphere really does matter. It has been stable for millions of years. Now we humans are knowingly altering it, allowing temperature and carbon dioxide levels to get to a point where it is changing our climate and will be dangerous for life on this planet.

As I pointed out in December 2015 when it was first written, the Paris Climate Agreement was far from perfect. (Paris Climate Agreement: the good, the bad, and the ugly) Even if it achieved its modest goals, global average temperature would still rise, albeit more slowly. The hope was that technology and even more robust commitments in the future would get us where we needed to be. If the US abstains however, estimates are that about 30% of that improvement will disappear––not a trivial amount.

Princeton University’s Dr. Michael Oppenheimer is an expert on these issues. Following Trump’s decision, in an article in The Atlantic on Saturday he says that this decision effectively makes it impossible to keep the warming to the two degree Celsius threshold that is most commonly accepted to maintain a planet that is tolerable to us. Interestingly, he points out that the criticisms Trump cited with the Paris Agreement, actually are not even in it. The issues Trump pointed to as objectionable were all points of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which the US signed but never ratified.

If there is any silver lining to Trump’s decision, it may push business and the public even harder to do the right thing. Immediately following the announcement, corporate leaders from Elon Musk of Tesla to Jeff Immelt of General Electric, abandoned the President, doubling down on their own efforts to slow the warming. Mayors and governors in the US are also strengthening their commitments to the goals. To be clear, the Paris Agreement is still going ahead with the commitment of the other 194 signatories. Speaking for Europe and India, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week that America’s lack of leadership would push the rest of the world to fill the void and stop assuming they could depend on the US to lead the way. Some have observed that Trump further put the Chinese in a position of global leadership with his decision Thursday. The Chinese are holding regional and global conferences, looking ahead to more efficient transportation networks, use of renewable energy sources, and recently stopped construction of more than a hundred coal-fired power plants.

The missed opportunity from Trump’s position is what might have been achieved with strong American leadership, particularly from a person who arguably understands business. For example, this direction is sharp contrast to May 1961, when President John F. Kennedy set a goal to land a man on the moon within a decade. Kennedy’s futuristic goal still stands as one of the finest examples of a President asserting a clear vision, inspiring millions to innovation and greatness. He likely could not have imagined the forces he would unleash with that single commitment to look to the future, to accomplish something that challenged our imagination.

In my opinion, Trump’s decision shows the opposite of vision and boldness. It’s hard to miss the irony as this comes from a candidate who promised to make American great again. With this decision, Trump defied the guidance from dozens of corporate leaders. It is also widely reported that he did not heed the advice of his own daughter and senior advisor, Ivanka, son-in-law Jared Kushner, or his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon — all of whom reportedly urged him to stay committed to the Paris Climate Agreement. His defiance, listening to the likes of Steve Bannon, will likely add to his isolation and encourage him to keep speaking to his base, a base that may be shrinking–– like an iceberg in increasingly hot water.

Though there is no evidence at all that we can change Trump’s position, we must all redouble our efforts and make our concerns clear to him and all elected officials. As promised, I will refrain from any partisan political positions but do suggest that you mark the date of November 6, 2018. Although it is not a presidential election year, that is the next US election for members of Congress. One year, five months, and three days from today (June 4th). Five hundred twenty days, but who’s counting?

To close, tackling climate change, both the efforts to slow it (sometimes called ‘mitigation’) and the efforts to adapt to that which is already unavoidable is not some political parlor game. This is a moment in history for our species. This is not a time for partisanship, modest efforts, or even pessimism. We need commitment and leadership. What we do will profoundly affect future generations.