John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Climate Change is no longer a theory, as it was when Dr. James Hansen testified to Congress in 1988. The polar ice sheets and glaciers are melting to a degree not seen in millions of years. Our relatively stable weather climate patterns of the last few thousand years are changing. The evidence continues to appear in the headlines.

Floods from Tennessee to Pakistan that have not been seen in a thousand years. Heat waves from New York to Russia without precedent. Tom Friedman wrote that ‘we better get used to wacky weather.’ This is all in accord with what Hansen predicted. Weather patterns would become destabilized as temperatures warm, causing more evaporation. Precipitation patterns will change with droughts in some places, deluges in others. The melting ice caps will add to the rising sea level, and will further change the predictable weather patterns.

Just to state the ocean connection, the larger climate issues of warmer temperatures and rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels are intimately connected with the sea. Warmer ocean temperatures are now associated with the increased death of coral reefs, even in remote locations. The elevated CO₂ is the factor lowering ocean pH, which has a significant impact on everything from the formation of shells, to coral reefs, to the foundation of the ocean food chain. These subjects are covered in other blog posts.

Congress argues about what to do and has now shelved the pending climate legislation. The truth is that it was as much of a monstrous compromise as the health care bill. Much of the proposed climate bill was the result of “suggestions” from the lobbyists and special interests. It was based on a complex program of “cap and trade” of carbon pollution permits. While I used to accept that this was a reasonable way for the market to effect change, I no longer believe that is the case.

Cap and Trade is too prone to manipulation, deals, and delay. There needs to be a more direct way to attach a higher cost to such fuel sources as coal, that are cheap, but are the worst contributors to the rising CO₂ levels, that are responsible for climate change, aka global warming.

If we do not find a way to encourage the use of lower carbon fuels, we are headed for temperatures that will truly be deadly this century. Thousands died in Russia this summer. A few years ago, more than 30,000 died in the heat waves in Europe. The trend will increase. This is now the warmest decade on record. This year has also broken records, in spite of the record setting cold periods last winter. The summer more than compensated. The science is overwhelming. The evidence in the news is compelling.

The usual efforts of changing light bulbs, driving a hybrid, recycling, and resetting thermostats are good personal statements and may make an incremental contribution. Unfortunately population growth, the increased demand for energy, and the fact that coal continues to be the largest single source of energy mean that all these efforts can not solve the problem of growing CO2 emissions. We must find a way to reduce the CO₂ emissions. I believe that we have to enable the free market to help implement the decisions. We need to find a way to implement “carbon pricing.”

Dr. Hansen has once again stepped forth with a brilliant idea. Realizing that taxes are shunned, he proposes “Carbon Fee and Dividend” where an escalating schedule of carbon fees are collected according to what is mined or pumped. This will drive up the cost of energy, and will be reflected in power bills and at the gas pump, and elsewhere.

However, all the fees collected would then be distributed back to all taxpayers, either quarterly or monthly, in the form of a “dividend” or “green check.” Let’s call it a “rebate.” Thus it does 3 important things:

1. Adds a carbon cost to each fuel source proportional to the carbon put in the atmosphere,
2. Gives consumers an offset to help with the higher costs of energy, and
3. The system is transparent and revenue neutral; it does not add any net money to government taxes collected.

To find out more about the concept of the carbon pricing, go to the Carbon Tax Center http://www.carbontax.org — I would prefer they had a better name — but lots of good information.

Long term, temperature parallels carbon dioxide. Before the industrial age, CO₂ stayed within a range of 180 – 280 ppm. Now it is 388 ppm and moving straight up. A group called “CO₂ now” has some great graphics and information to track the level of CO₂: http://www.co2now.org.

There are many other groups that deserve support, such as 350.org: http://www.350.org that is promoting the goal of getting CO₂ levels back down to 350 ppm. The Citizens Climate Lobby http://www.citizensclimatelobby.org is helping to organize grass roots groups. Larger environmental groups such as Natural Resource Defense Council http://www.nrdc.org, Environmental Defense Fund http://www.edf.org, and the Sierra Club http://www.sierraclub.org/carbon/ have focused efforts.

What is lacking is understanding and support for carbon pricing, even among these organizations. We need to stop avoiding the issue. It is time to advocate a path that will deal with climate change. To my understanding, carbon pricing is the only path that will get us there. Please join me in becoming specific about advocating for carbon pricing as advocated by Dr. Hansen. I like the term “carbon fee and rebate.” These organizations and our elected representatives need to hear that there is growing support for a policy of “carbon pricing”, or specifically “Carbon Fee and Rebate.”

If we do not do anything, the mounting evidence indicates that temperatures this century will rise by as much as 8 degrees F, or more this century. That is deadly. It’s time to act on the main issue with a frontal assault. That issue is how to get off of coal as quickly as possible. Ways that utilize market forces are most efficient and effective. That is why I like Hansen’s Carbon Fee and Rebate concept.

Thinking or wishing that changing light bulbs and driving hybrids will not do it. We cannot waste another decade while the economy gets better, or the public wakes up and realizes things have gone too far. This is like the proverbial “boiling the frog.” We are watching it happen month by month, but somehow are frozen in place.

If not us who? If not now, when?