John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Stop CO2 to Stop Sea Level Rise. WRONG!

There is a widely held belief that we can solve the problem of rising sea level by cutting carbon emissions. It is very wrong and very dangerous. The mistaken concept was featured at a recent Miami conference on resiliency for city and county officials, developers, builders and engineers. The erroneous idea was even illustrated by WLRN Public Radio’s headline story “How to Prepare for Sea Level Rise? Miami developer recommends cutting carbon emissions” (shown above) coming out of the conference.

The developer they cited in the headline and story voiced two valid and very important concepts: greater energy efficiency, and the need to adapt to rising sea level. Unfortunately his message also emphasized a false connection between the two. While I knew that a large portion of the public may hold that mistaken belief that efforts to be “green” might stop rising sea level, I truly thought that falsehood was clear to community leaders and professionals–the kind of people at the conference. I was stunned to see that WLRN headline about their “takeaway” from the conference. Mr. Ojeda is indeed a leading Miami real estate developer and a fine example of enlightened attitude. To give him due credit, his two points as described in the story, and as faithfully recorded in his own words on their web site are excellent. Each of them individually that is.

To paraphrase, he said that with increased flooding now, and the prospect of rising sea level in the years to come, that we should do two things: Build higher to be more flood resistant. Second, be more energy efficient such as the LEED Gold certification earned by his building shown here. On those two points, Mr. Ojeda is 100% correct. But he did not stop there. He said that the main focus for developers should be energy efficiency in order to prepare for rising sea level and to stop it. That is incorrect and misleading.

The false belief is that we can stop rising sea level in the near future by cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It is so appealing to think that if we have more “green” energy efficient buildings and communities it would be enough to stop sea level rise. This belief is so widely accepted, that it might be considered a “meme” or cultural belief. In reality, it’s a myth.

The truth is:

Energy and global warming are now largely uncoupled from sea level rise, at least for the next few decades.
The entire world could stop all CO2 emissions tomorrow and sea level will keep rising throughout this century
We have passed a “tipping point” due to the massive amount of excess heat already stored in the ocean
Good programs like the energy efficient LEED buildings mentioned can eventually slow the rise of the ocean but can not stop it.
For coastal cities to be viable for the next 50 – 100 years they must adapt to a world with constantly rising sea levels, now projected to be a couple of feet as early as mid century and five to ten feet by the end of century.

These facts are not new. I wrote about this two years ago. ‘Don’t Confuse Sustainable Energy with Adapting to Rising Sea Level”. But it appears that we have a tremendous resistance to accept this reality.

Carbon emissions are local but soon blend in the atmosphere globally. Warming is a planet-level phenomenon affected by the total blended emissions from all cities. Even if every city in the world followed the given example and drastically reduced their carbon emissions, with the target of getting to zero emissions, sea level will still rise for centuries, though it would happen more slowly.

The problem is that the oceans have already been warmed about one and a half degrees Fahrenheit, or one degree Celsius. That is an incredible amount of stored heat energy. Even with the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. the HOPE is that we can keep the warming to double that amount. But even one degree means many feet of higher sea level. The planet is already warmer. As long as ice melts at 32 degrees F (zero C), a warmer planet means less ice and higher sea level. In fact based on geologic history from 120,000 years ago, with warming that has already occurred, the seas will eventually rise at least 25 feet (7+ meters). If we do the right things with maximum effort to slow the warming, we may be able to delay that for centuries. That would be a great goal. In other words, if all the cities in the world set tough standards, we could get global warming and rising seas under control eventually but it would not happen quickly. For example Copenhagen has set a target to be “carbon neutral” by 2025 — in just eight years. That’s a fantastic goal. And with its location and weather Florida would probably have an easier task to be carbon neutral — but that does not seem to be on the agenda for the state’s current leadership. (See my post Earth Day – call for Wartime Mobilization )

The problem is the lag time to stop and reverse the ice melting, which can be demonstrated with a simple experiment. Put a pot of water on the stove, with a chunk of ice in it. Turn the heat up to a modest level and wait a few minutes. As soon as the ice starts to melt, turn the heat off. The ice keeps melting. We are now running that experiment on a global scale.

The fact is that unfortunately regardless of Miami does with carbon emissions it will not have a noticeable effect on global warming, the melting glaciers and ice sheets, or sea level rise. Though we should reduce emissions as part of the global effort to turn things around, the best focus for Miami to prepare for higher sea level is to begin adaptation, which starts with building higher. That will take innovative designs by developers and a total redesign of the low lying region. That will take bold thinking by city leaders, professionals, businesses, architects, engineers, planners, and residents. It is not just developers, home owners, and businesses. It is the infrastructure such as the height of roads, bridges, utilities.That will determine if Miami will still be a vibrant city in the second half of this century.

We must stop the false belief that cutting CO2 emissions will stop sea level from rising. Putting the focus on adaptation is what will make communities viable.

By John Englander May 14, 2017 Sea Level Rise

7 Comments

Evan

- 8 years ago Reply

In the last inter-glacial (the time when we were coming out of the last ice age), meltwater pulse 1A saw sea level rise about 60′ in 400 years. From what I understand, pulses occur when something big lets loose, and several hundred years is typical for the time period over which these pulses that occur. Recent work in West Antarctica suggests that enough ice sheets have already become destabilized to increase sea level by 10’s of ft, and is likely unstoppable (Google work by Eric Rignot). It seems that regardless of what we do, Miami is gone, because the dynamics that started these ice sheets flowing cannot be reversed on time scales less than millenia. There comes a point when it is too late, and the sooner we accept that, the sooner we can move on to saving what can be saved. And it is likely not Miami.

John

- 8 years ago Reply

I can’t say that anything you have written here is incorrect Evan. The question is timing. It would not be as easy to get the 60 feet or so of SLR today as occurred 14,000 years ago. Then there was a lot more ice to melt. Still we could get some big meltdowns on the order of more than ten feet in a matter of decades. From my study, observations, and assessment I don’t think that can happen for at least three decades. Whether it happens by 2050 or 2150 is impossible to say at this point. In part, it depends on how quickly we continue the warming, i.e. greenhouse gas increase. In other words, Miami might have 50 years or 150 years. It is that uncertainty that makes policy and retreat, so problematic. And of course, Miami is just the symbolic city. The same applies to all low-lying coastal areas from Boston to Bangladesh and from Shanghai to San Francisco.

Richard Bailey

- 8 years ago Reply

Because zero emissions will only slow sea level rise, we need to prepare for that inevitability. We also need to draw down (reduce) carbon levels in the atmosphere. If done on a large enough scale, it will further slow (but not stop) sea level rise. A recent plan has been published that ranks the top 100 ways to reduce carbon levels in the air. “Drawdown” by Paul Hawken, Penguin Books, 2016, is the work of dozens of international scientists and policymakers. Each solution is ranked by availability, and by economic and scientific validity (and some of the most highly rated may surprise many). Protecting coastal wetlands, and allowing them to migrate inland, is ranked at #52. This apparent first ever, global plan that goes beyond slowing or stopping emissions should be read by everyone.

John

- 8 years ago Reply

Richard — I agree with you about Hawken’s new book Drawdown. It is an impressive survey and very well done. I am going to do a separate post and recommend it.
If we pursued those things with “wartime mobilization” levels of effort, we could slow things down considerably and eventually get climate back to some relatively balanced state. Even with that sea level will very likely still be quite a few feet higher.

Earl R. Hahn

- 8 years ago Reply

Amen to that John! It’s a meme and a source of much confusion. Thanks for providing clarity on the matter.

Siam

- 7 years ago Reply

There must a way to save cities like miami, bangkok, cox bazar or even countries like mal dieves.
Many here are commenting on how melting ice causing the rise of sea level, but its actually the tharmal expansion of the sea water due to the rise of temperature that causing this problem. Not the melting ice! Melting ice isnt enough to rise the water level by that much. Our scientists, engineers, all the great minds around the globe needs to focus on solving this issue. Humanity always solved its problems one way or another

John

- 7 years ago Reply

I understand you wanting to save everything and believing that we can do anything, but you are misunderstanding some things. Briefly: It is true that thermal expansion was the cause of more than half the 20 cm (10 in) of sea level rise (SLR) this past century. That was before the big warming pulse which has started the glaciers and ice sheets to melt. They have already surpassed thermal expansion as a contributor. With exponential growth, it will surprise us greatly. 14,000 years ago, during the last great warming, sea level rose about 65 feet (20 m) in four centuries. That is before our civilization and social memory. The facts are very clear. The oceans have been warmed. We are causing more warming due to greenhouse gases, which traps heat, melts the land ice and raises sea level. To me, it is clear. We must work harder to slow the long term warming and we must prepare for higher sea level. There are tens of thousands of coastal communities at risk. We may not want to believe something, but the melting ice and rising sea really ‘do not care.’ Also FYI, the last time sea level was higher was 120,000 years ago when it reached about 25 feet higher than now; that was just a natural event.