John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

A “glass-half-empty or glass-half-full” is a common metaphor about perspective, inviting us to look at something negatively or positively. It is easy to look at rising sea level as a negative given the huge problems it will create. Yet there are some positive perspectives that are worthwhile to consider. I often conclude talks describing our perception of rising sea level with the metaphor as a way to stay focused on slowing the problem, while at the same time, addressing the challenge of adaptation.

First to recognize the disastrous aspects of sea level rise (SLR), such as:

• Higher sea level will literally change coastlines globally, also through wetlands and far up tidal rivers. Many cities, regions, and quite a few low-elevation island nations will disappear.
• Sustained higher sea level will also expand the frequency and scope of short term flooding from extreme tides, heavy rain, and storms in coastal regions.
• Economic losses will be in the hundreds of billions as vast areas of coastal property are destined to go underwater. Hundreds of millions of people will eventually be displaced.
• Due to the excess heat already stored in the sea, SLR can be slowed, but is now unstoppable for centuries.

Catastrophic to be sure and easy to see as a “glass half empty.” Nonetheless, there are some positive points worth keeping in mind.

1. Compared to the usual slate of disaster events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis, SLR is relatively slow. Hurricane Harvey caused many feet of flooding in hours as one recent example. A decade ago, the Indonesian tsunami killed two hundred thousand in a few hours. Even the worst scenarios for sea level suggests a maximum rate on the order of several feet or a meter over a decade. Those “sudden events” can bring devastation and death, typically with little or no warning. In contrast, few will directly die from the inexorable rise of sea level. It may displace millions but it is slow enough that most will move out of harm’s way sooner or later.
2. We have years and decades to make this adjustment. That time is a blessing. While terribly disruptive, this could bring out the best in us. Our greatest strength is being adaptive and ingenious.
3. Preparing for and adapting to sustained higher sea level will be a challenge for architects, engineers, and planners. It will force new concepts of law, financing, taxation, governance, insurance, and public policy.  Even our basic accounting will have to find a way to gradually amortize most coastal assets and infrastructure. Each of those professions will need to rethink concepts and teachings. While that presents very real problems, it also presents a very exciting opportunity to rediscover, redefine, and find new approaches. What other single phenomenon could force such a renaissance.
4. Though the effects of rising sea level will be a daunting challenge, perhaps it will sober us up as to what is at risk with unrestrained climate change. While the other effects of climate change from weather patterns, fires, and heat, will be terrible, the fact that SLR will inexorably eat away at valuable real estate could get our attention in a unique way. Beyond the usual environmental perception of climate change, rising sea level presents clear economic impact measured in the trillions worldwide. That can be an entirely different argument to a much wider audience in terms of the impact of climate change and the need to stop it ASAP.

The point is that however problematic rising sea level is, there is another side, that can be seen as the “glass-half-full.” We must see that perspective in order to tackle the challenge ahead. We need to overcome the feeling of being immobilized, the “deer in the headlights” syndrome, or the  tendency turn our attention away from things which are too disruptive, what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. Now is the time to redesign our communities to prepare for the rising sea that is now unavoidable.

We do not respond well to forecasts of doom, gloom, and disaster, particularly those with a vague date. We do much better getting excited about opportunities and challenges. It is especially important to present the positive view of something as big and broad as sustained higher sea level.

Rising sea level could be a very real force that will cause us to adapt, to learn, to change our perceptions of what is important, and to change how we set priorities and possibly how we govern ourselves. If it does those things, we can be thankful. This perspective allows me to see this challenge as an opportunity.

We have time to adapt, but no time to waste. Seeing the silver lining to the cloud, the glass-half-full may be the perspective enabling us to do what must be done.