Sea-level rise in California could be catastrophic, study says – SF Gate
Article Synopsis – A state-commissioned report on climate change released Wednesday raises the stakes for fighting global warming, offering a clearer and, in some cases, more catastrophic picture of how much sea levels will rise in California. The report lays out expected ocean levels through 2150 for a number of locations and scenarios varying with the amount of greenhouse gas emissions globally. The Bay Area will see the ocean swell as much as 3.4 feet by 2100 if significant action isn’t taken, the report says. The scientists who produced the study pegged the prospect of that outcome at 67 percent. The main drivers of rising seas to date have been melting glaciers and the expansion of water that naturally occurs as temperatures warm. However, thawing ice sheets, which have the potential to raise sea levels by 212 feet, will soon become the primary contributor. For every foot of global sea-level rise caused by melting ice in the western Antarctic, California will see the the ocean rise about 1.25 feet, according to the report.
My Comment – It is important to note that all sea level rise projections are based on uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. Whenever a precise number is used (like the 3.4 feet projection in this article), it can be misleading. The simple truth is we do not know how quickly the ice sheets will melt as there are so many variables involved. The best we can do is plug in predictions for those variables (what our future carbon dioxide output will be, for example) and come up with a range of projections based on those estimations. To read the actual article click here.