Provoking Article Harvard Business Review: ‘SLR Won’t Doom US Cities”
“Rising Sea Levels Won’t Doom U.S. Cities” is a new article in the highly respected Harvard Business Review. It argues that economic incentive and creativity will make it possible for major cities to survive.
I was compelled to jump on this with the third comment, reprinted below. As stated I applaud the concept that survival, economic risk and reward, and human ingenuity will allow dramatic adaptation.
Yet I caution that it is not nearly as sanguine as the author suggests. Many major cities, vast rural areas, and some nations will disappear, or become fragments of their current glory.
What is essential is to have the big picture awareness of where things are headed and the tools to look at the full range of projections for sea level rise, in order to make plans for good business decision making.
Bravo. There are some very good and refreshing perspectives in this piece, similar to what I termed “intelligent Adaptation” in my book (High Tide On Main Street). We do need to take a positive, economically driven view of sea level rise, but should not be sanguine either.
The oceans have already been warmed by a degree and a half Fahrenheit, ensuring that the glaciers and ice sheets will get smaller, and the sea will get much higher. As sea level rises foot by foot, we are going to be challenged in ways presently unimaginable. Many cities will adapt to rising sea level though they may not be recognizable from their current form. Many will go underwater however, either due to geologic vulnerability or insufficient economic density. Manhattan’s relatively high ground and granite base is very different from nearly-flat Miami built on porous limestone. It is not just those iconic cities that will be affected. Every coastal community in the world, including those far up tidal rivers faces this revolutionary reality.
In our work (risingseasgroup.com) we recommend starting with a careful vulnerability assessment, then doing full-range scenario planning with different time horizons and rates of sea level rise. That makes it possible to plan for adaptation, or rather the phases of adaptation that can form a longer term strategy.
As Mr Kahn suggests, survival and economics will be the powerful incentives to avoid loss, reduce risk, and find the “higher ground” for new valuable locations.
And let’s not confine thinking to U.S. cities. In our globally-interconnected economy, what happens to seaports, infrastructure and supply chains cares little in which political jurisdiction a coastal city presently exists.
I am pleased to see the author’s unflinching acceptance of adaptation. Far too often it gets set aside in the rush to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, often termed mitigation. While that is essential to slow the rate of warming, which is causing the ice to melt and the sea to rise, we have passed the tipping point. Even if we went 100% renewable energy today, sea level will still rise for centuries.
Now is the time for creative, bold thinking to move to, or even create ‘higher ground’ as this article suggests. Maps will be redrawn. Some cities and nations will disappear — perhaps faster than many might imagine. Those that can see over the horizon will be the beneficiaries. As Mr. Kahn suggests businesses large and small may be even more nimble than governments. Planning and adapting to higher sea level will require efforts by the public sector, the private sector, and all aspects of society.
There will always be coastal cities. They are essential for obvious reasons from trade to recreation to our need to stay connected to the sea. Some present cities can and will adapt. In some places new seaports will be created as world geography undergoes dramatic changes for the first time in human civilization.
To quote the closing line from my TEDx talk, “We have time to adapt, but we have no time to waste.”