Impacts From Sea Level Rise and Storms 5 Times Worse by New US Geological Survey
The U.S. Geological Survey announced a study today that compared two kinds of models to look at projected sea level rise. The new model looked at the impacts of storms and waves combined with sea level rise to assess damage. It ran a comparison with an older model that simply looked at sea level rise, with an essentially normal ocean. A press release issued today has a link to the full study.
Just to summarize the findings. The island of Midway, one of the most famous battle sites of World War II, was one of the subject islands. Looking ahead to a 2 meter (6 1/2 foot) rise in sea level, the new “dynamic model” showed that 91 percent of the island would be put underwater. That is almost five times what the previous “static” model found, that only 19 percent of the island would be affected.
As I talk about in High Tide On Main Street, looking at ocean sea level height when the ocean is calm has little value when assessing potential damage. Storms come on top of that height. If they come at high tide, or extreme tide, as Hurricane Sandy did, the effects are far worse. As sea level rises decade, by decade, it raises the base height. It is that devastation that we need to look at and prepare for. I am pleased to see the USGS recognizing what was rather obvious, that the old simple model was inadequate.