“High Tide On Main Street” – 5th Anniversary – Important Update
Today is the fifth anniversary of the publication of my book, High Tide On Main Street: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis. Often cited is the amazing coincidence that exactly a week later, October 29th, superstorm Sandy hit Atlantic City and New York, an event I seem to have described on page 121. In various interviews, I was asked how I “predicted” it in advance, even noting that the book cover looked like Manhattan. Though “spooky” as they said on British morning television, I dismissed the suggestion that it was a “prediction”, saying it was just a scenario. The timing was truly eerie however. At 9 AM that morning the book was listed on Amazon. The tropical depression that became Sandy formed south of Jamaica a few hours later. Facts can be stranger than fiction––as I keep finding with some recent examples that I will share in a moment.
But the important question from this perspective in 2017, five years later, is what has changed regarding rising sea level; what have we learned that can help us plan and adapt better? I am pleased to say that the scientific case made in the book remains intact and has not been refuted. However, it is now clear to me that it is time to revise my estimate of possible sea level rise in the coming decades.
In 2012, I stated that global ocean height might be a foot higher by mid-century, and four to five feet higher by the year 2100. Various scientific studies, including some very obvious observations on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica push me to revise those figures, essentially doubling those upper ranges. On our current path, we could have as much as two feet by mid-century, and perhaps ten feet by the end of century, a level that will submerge a large portion of our current coastal cities. Such elevated figures are not just my estimate, recent publications by leading climate expert Dr. James Hansen, the State of California, the Southeast Florida Climate Compact, and NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) all have raised their upper estimates to the seven to ten foot range by 2100. And we must remember, that the rise does not stop at the year 2100. At current ocean temperature levels, ice will keep melting, raising sea level.
Unfortunately we still cannot project the rate with precision that far out, in part because we cannot know how warm the planet will be in coming decades. That will be considerably affected by our success in achieving the goal set in the Paris Climate Accord of 2015. In previous posts I have expressed concern about the agreement and about President Trump’s intent to withdraw from it. The truth is that lots of decisions have to be made in the US and other nations that will determine its effectiveness. Time will tell if the world can achieve the ambitious goal to limit the warming. There is still time to avoid the worst case scenarios. If we take this problem seriously and do everything possible to lower the level of carbon dioxide emissions.
The reason for the substantial increase in my estimates for higher sea level is based upon events of the last couple of years in Greenland and Antarctica. Glaciers and ice sheets in both areas are thawing at rates that are really extraordinary and quite visible. The large Greenland Glacier, Jakobshavn, has literally tripled its speed within two decades, moving forward more than a hundred feet a day. That may still seem like “glacial speed” but in fact it redefines the term. That glacier puts out more water in a day, than the United States uses in a year. (For more, see the report from my trip in 2016, Greenland is Getting Greener.) A colleague who was there last month, told me that I would not believe the melting in just the last twelve months. The Arctic is warming faster than any other part of the planet. The melting glaciers and ice sheets on land are the major cause of rising sea level. It is safe to state that the rate of rise will almost certainly accelerate exponentially. Like compounding high interest rates, exponential growth is a surprising phenomenon. (See Beware the Doubling Time for Rising Seas.)
On the positive side, my perception is that there is now better awareness among the general population about rising sea level than five years ago. For my part, I have given hundreds of presentations and briefings in this time period. Interestingly the other massive flooding events, particularly Sandy back in 2012, and Harvey, Irma, and Maria recently all seem to get people to consider the reality of flooding much more seriously, whether it be from storm surge, record rains, king tides or rising sea level.
Though I wish the understanding, planning, and adaptation would happen a lot faster, I do want to acknowledge the improving awareness. We all need to share this information, the new realization that sea level and shorelines will change in ways that seem hard to imagine. While there is huge risk and potential loss, the sooner we see the new reality the sooner we can turn losses and short sighted capital expenditures into investments in communities of tomorrow.
Having started this post with the eerie timing of the scenario in my book and the appearance of superstorm Sandy, I want to share two other similar recent instances, as they are still very much on my mind. On August 8th I was the keynote speaker at a workshop in Port Aransas, near Corpus Christi. The program was titled: “Resilient Texas: Planning for Rising Sea Level.” It was great that the various stakeholders were planning well ahead for what rising seas mean for those vulnerable communities on the Texas coast. I also reminded them that the more imminent risk of hurricanes and storm surge, created a more immediate reason to become more resilient, noting that a big storm could happen “just weeks from now.” Lo and behold, eighteen days later, August 26, Hurricane Harvey came ashore at that location.
On August 29th, I was the opening speaker in Jacksonville Florida at a regional conference of the Society of American Military Engineers (SAME). The flooding in Texas was very much on everyone’s mind. At this meeting I focused more on the geography of the St. John’s River as a potential pathway for flooding from storms, tides, rain, and sea level rise becoming amplified in the estuary. Specifically I added that if a storm came in from the east, it would cause a major problem, trying to give them reason to start engineering a storm surge barrier ASAP. Twelve days later Hurricane Irma brought a storm surge up the St. Johns, made worse by extreme rainfall. The flooding was the worst they had experienced in almost a century. The downtown, including the hotel where we met just two weeks earlier was flooded. I know the timing of those events is merely strange coincidence, though bordering on the uncanny. (I imagine this is either going to increase my speaking invitations or end them all together. 🙂 )
To close, high tide is coming to main street in more ways than one. In many coastal communities, routine flooding is already evident with the full moon king tide. The evidence that glaciers are melting at an accelerating pace, is there for anyone to see, with obvious implications for future sea level. There is huge risk, made worse by failing to plan for what lies ahead. The opportunity and positive economic growth — and profit — comes with looking to the horizon, to plan for the future.That is the focus of my presentations and consulting now. We are in strange and perilous times. It is urgent that we see the problems clearly. We must slow the warming. We must adapt to reduce the flooding from ever worse EVENTS. We must design for the reality that the sea is rising to a level unseen in thousands of years. If you are reading this I urge you to help us rise with the tide, as a leader, as a supporter, or by educating others.
This is not a matter of politics or belief. It is a question of adapting to a new reality. If you are an architect, engineer, planner, or similar profession, you can get more immersed in this topic, perhaps even getting your firm and your professional societies to put this on the program, add it to a conference, or organize a workshop. Perhaps I can be of assistance with those. More generally we all need to tell elected leaders and public officials that it is time to begin adaptation and to invest in our future. That means changing the building codes, making infrastructure more resilient, rethinking flood insurance, etc. Risk can be turned into opportunity. It is not just a matter of seeing the ‘glass half filled’, rather than half empty. We can unleash a lot more effort and resources with positive opportunity, compared to focusing on the negative. Thee is no time to waste however.