Harvey, Irma, and Maria’s 1-2-3 Punch
Boxers Rigondeaux v. Ramos @ Palms, Las Vegas – Photo credit: Stoyan Vassev
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria – the recent series of powerful storms, in exactly three weeks, might be the one, two, three “punch” that gets our attention about the new environmental conditions that we are up against. A pattern of three items is known to have special impact on our brains, separating events from randomness, setting the stage for possible pattern recognition.
To use the imagery of a boxing ring: In quick succession, each cyclone devastated their opponents, respectively the Houston region, several Caribbean islands, Florida and then Puerto Rico. In addition to dozens of fatalities, most of the damage was from extraordinary wind speeds and flooding. Each disaster unfolded differently showing a range of impacts. But even those communities that went down for the count, signaled to the onlookers that they would recover and fight another day — if help could arrive soon enough to sustain and finance their recovery.
Actually this is more a story of “man against nature” than man against man. To continue the boxing metaphor for a moment however. In the ring on the side of the weather, we now have dynamic new contestants driven by lots of energy, literally––energy that is stored in the ocean as heat. That heat transforms into energy for storms, causes more evaporation, yielding record amounts of rainfall, and even worse flooding from water “runoff” downhill or downstream.
The higher heat levels also alter ocean currents like the Gulf Stream and atmospheric currents like the Jet Stream, causing unpredictable storms and weather systems, quite outside the historical record. In addition, all this extra warming, the added degree and a half Fahrenheit (degree Celsius) of global ocean temperature, is melting the ice sheets and glaciers on land faster and faster, creating an even more powerful and devastating contender to come: rising sea level.
In this metaphor, the opponent of the weather is us: people, cities, infrastructure, economies and nations. As “adversaries” to mother nature, we are a motley group of contenders. We can no longer be arrogant denying climate change or slow and lethargic, unable to adapt to new opponents and their quick powerful, even unconventional moves. These latest hurricanes should be our wake-up call to start adapting our communities now.
While it is too early to document the effect these storms will have on public attitudes regarding climate change, a poll by the Gallup Organization in March of this year was very illuminating. Across America, 68% believe we are a significant cause of climate change, and 62% said that the effects are already here. That was six months before the triple punch of Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Will this be the turning point? Frankly it’s too early to tell. Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, St. Marten and others are still assessing the damage and trying to recover. Full recovery will take many years.
I can only hope that this triple fight card, helps get our attention. The lessons are profound and powerful. Houston needs to implement good zoning, building codes and stormwater management. Bayous are not something just to be paved over with urban sprawl, without consequence. Puerto Rico not only needs to rebuild with new building codes, this should be the opportunity to redesign its power system from the ground up. There may never be a better opportunity to design a large scale system of solar, wind, micro-grids and batteries using the latest technology. In spite of a potential catastrophic scenario, Florida mostly escaped the knockout punch this time, but may not fare as well with the next storm, and certainly not with sea level rise.
Make no mistake, adapting our communities for the three different causes of flooding––unprecedented storms, record rainfall, and sea level rise––is not going to be easy. The effects are very different, with storms and rainfall causing short term flooding and sea level rise putting property underwater essentially permanently. However, If we understand these different aspects clearly, we can design for greater resiliency for all of them.
To close with the boxing metaphor. After a devastating fight, particularly if it’s three in a row, a boxer has two options: retire, or change their workout regime to get in better shape. In our coastal world, our option to retire and leave from our locations is extremely difficult. For all these locations, the message should be that we need to get ourselves in better shape, with buildings and infrastructure that can survive and function in the new era. If not, we are going down for the count.