John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

The polar view above helps to see the Arctic more clearly. To continue from my post two weeks ago about the recent trip to Greenland, here are some bullet points of what I think are the strategic issues. As context, it is the largest island in the world, but with only 56,000 residents Greenland has the lowest population density in the world. An independent nation within the Kingdom of Denmark, “self-rule” was negotiated in 2004, with Denmark maintaining responsibility for military, defense, and foreign affairs; it should be noted that Denmark and the United States are close allies.

• It is useful to think of the nation of Greenland as having three primary economic assets:
  • Fisheries – Some of the richest fisheries in the world, led by Greenlandic Halibut. There is concern about how the warming oceans, the melting ice changing the salinity, and the changing currents could negatively impact fisheries.
  • Mining – Of greatest interest are the ‘rare Earth minerals’ in demand for modern electronics. Greenland is believed to have one of the largest concentrations in the world. Also, there are considerable oil and gas reserves.
  • Strategic location in the Arctic is its own valuable asset, particularly as the Arctic Ocean melts, opening up critical new shipping lanes and potentially altering the determination of territorial boundaries.
• The ice sheet, more than a mile thick (1.5 km), covering about 80% of the island still limits what can be accessed, but the accelerating melting, makes clear that the ice sheet will retreat, creating more land and better access to the buried mineral assets. Even with the likely exponential increase in the melting rate, it will take many centuries for it all to melt. (A full melt down would cause 25 feet (8 m) increase in global sea level.
• The thawing of Greenland and the Arctic Ocean will not soon be stopped due to the excess heat already stored in the oceans. In fact, they will melt faster than any region of the world, since that’s where the warming is concentrated, largely due to ocean and atmospheric currents moving the excess heat there.
• The US has had a long standing relationship with Greenland due to our advanced radar site at Thule (“Too-Lee”) Air Base at the far north, though the relationship with Denmark and the US was strained due to a nuclear bomber that crashed in the ice in 1968 and other issues about nuclear weapons on the island contravening Danish policy.
• Not only has China set up mining operations in Greenland, they are offering to build new airports. There is no doubt that China wants to be a polar power, as part of its global strategy. (For more, read China As a Polar Great Power by Anne-Marie Brady)
• As can be seen from the polar map, Russia and Canada dominate the Arctic Ocean, along with Greenland. The United States has a key position due to Alaska and Norway / Svalbard complete the five nations who arguably divide up the Pole. To underscore the currency of this issue, I pointed out in a recent Op-ed in the Washington Post, that with the firing of a nuclear capable missile from the North Pole in late August, Russia is stepping up its case that the North Pole is its territory.
• Recent interest by President Trump to buy Greenland from Denmark landed like a ton of ice and quickly melted away. But the larger chess game of who will own or have dominant influence on Greenland is far from settled.
• Among the Greenland people there is a strong desire for full independence but recognition that it will likely be another generation before they can give up their dependency on the Kingdom of Denmark.
• The Greenlandic people and their self-rule government will be under enormous pressure in the coming years, with concerns and overtures of support from all the nations concerned about the changing Arctic. The big stakes game will be between China and the United States. Denmark will surely be involved too. Russia will be watching closely – like a big bear concerned about its territory. With the increased interest there will be big risks, both for Greenland and the World. Hopefully Greenland can turn the situation to its advantage.

The nonprofit International Sea Level Institute will be organizing another Exclusive Fact-Finding Expedition in August 2020. Space is limited to eleven participants due to helicopter capacity. To find out more, send an email to: greenland@johnenglander.net Below are the comments from some of the participants on the trip just completed this September:

Reading about sea level rise pales in comparison to KNOWLEDGE. Studying the Greenland Ice Sheet and sea level rise with John Englander is a deep-knowledge experience.

Carl Eibl – Venture Capital, La Jolla

Many scientists do not think broadly on the implications of sea level rise. This trip provided me an opportunity to connect with professionals across industries thinking deeply about the acute effects of climate change. Communicating science to a multi-disciplinary team and discussing these issues with industry professionals was an invaluable experience

Cooper Elsworth – Glaciologist & Climate Modeler, Palo Alto

Why go to Greenland with John Englander? Because the immediacy of rising seas is best appreciated by witnessing the immensity and massive scale of Greenland’s glaciers, and because immersion in that environment, joined by authentic and intelligent discussion, is the best form of education. Rising seas, its consequences, and the possibilities for solutions, should be present and accounted for by everyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve.

Michael Goldstein – Attorney, New York City

 It was an unexpected experience of being thrust into understanding how rapidly our world is changing

Mark Grosvenor  – Investor / Real Estate Developer, Fort Lauderdale

 I went from a passing familiarity with sea level rise to a much more profound one. John incorporates glaciology, oceanography, geology and geopolitics to make the experience a true learning experience. The time on the ice makes it an unforgettable one.

Gary Greenberg CFA, Head of Global Emerging Markets at Hermes, London

The Greenland expedition is stellar, with spectacular scenery, luxury hotels, excellent food, and insightful education about adaptation to avoid catastrophe from rising seas.

Frank Rodriguez, Corporate Creations, Founder and Chair, Palm Beach Gardens

For more of the stunning iceberg images by J.Mark Grosvenor, see my earlier blog post, Part 1