John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Earth Day Clarity and Confusion

April 22 was first designated Earth Day in 1970. With growing concerns from polluted rivers to oil spills damaging beaches, the point was to put the environment ‘front and center.’ It seems like a good time to clarify some environmental truths as well as some confusion.

While there are many descriptions of what Earth Day signifies, mine would be:

We are part of a giant, but finite, connected ecosystem
Pollution of air, water, and land causes problems for all life on the planet
Economic growth without environmental protection is not in our interest

Today most people are aware of and accept the merits of those foundational points. The question of how to balance economic growth and opportunity, with quality of life, is a matter of ongoing discussion and even some controversy. In a world of seven and a half billion people and growing, there are few clear answers, despite the urgent awareness that issues of “sustainability” must be addressed.

In 1970 when the Environmental movement took shape, “climate change” was not even seen to be a problem, but in these last few decades, has come to be a major concern. In some ways climate change overlaps and reinforces the classic environmental concerns, but in many ways is very different. In order to solve problems, it is essential that we define which problem we are addressing, to be sure that the correction is the right one.

In the last two weeks I have been in three incredibly different environments:

The wilderness of Greenland, with its vast melting ice sheets and glaciers
Rome and the Vatican, a major international city (and nation) densely populated, with rich history, symbolizing human ‘beliefs’, customs, and moral questions
Home in South Florida, an environment that has global attraction, but is clearly vulnerable to one particular effect of climate change, rising sea level

In discussions in each of these places, with people concerned about climate change, three basic points of confusion repeatedly came up about my focus of rising sea level. Earth Day seems like a good time to clear them up:

To be clear, the primary issue with climate change is that the planet is getting warmer. The two big ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are melting faster and faster and will cause sea level to rise to record levels not experienced for over one hundred thousand years (when sea level reached some twenty five feet above present day). Climate has changed before in natural cycles, such as the repeating “ice age” patterns. The warming now however correlates extremely well with the addition of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other “greenhouse gases” that trap heat in the atmosphere.

Clearing up 3 Points of Confusion

Water pollution and other good environmental concerns are different than climate change. Often people respond to concerns about climate change saying we need to stop water pollution, deal with plastics in the ocean, or address some concern about animals. All of those concerns are valid and important, but even if we solved those issues, they would not affect the temperature of the planet.
Even the classic air pollution from carbon particulate matter, “soot” and black smoke is not the cause of warming. Visible air pollution is a very different problem than the increase in completely clear greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane (natural gas). Also the problem a few decades ago, with the “hole in the ozone layer” affecting ultraviolet radiation is completely different than climate change and warming.
Reducing fossil fuel use to slow the warming can eventually slow rising sea level, if it is done at a global level. But even making this an urgent world priority cannot fix this soon enough. Even if the world stopped ALL fossil fuel use starting “today”, sea level will rise for many decades due to the extra heat, already stored in the ocean.

Everything is connected. But in this incredible complex Earth system we have to connect the “right dots” to fix our problems and live in harmony with the environment.

The point is that we need to keep in mind those important principles looking back to 1970, at the same time that we tackle the issues of a warmer planet. Changing weather patterns and rising sea level are special topics because they cannot soon be reversed and will require us to adapt. Also, the reality of re-engineering our coastal communities and infrastructure to adapt to rising sea level can be a huge economic engine for growth, perhaps the greatest one this century.

To bring this back to the holistic perspective of Earth Day, we should recognize these three diverse environmental concepts and challenges:

The vast array of traditional environmental concerns are essential and must be considered with economic growth. “Sustainability” is a good guiding principle.
Addressing climate change is also an extremely high priority that deals with the invisible greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide.
The effects of a warmer planet, such as changing weather patterns and accelerating sea level rise, are not soon reversible and require adaptation now.

To close with a “salute” to Earth Day, let us do all we can to protect the eco-system upon which we depend, for ourselves, and for future generations.

By John Englander April 22, 2018 Sea Level Rise

4 Comments

Andy

- 7 years ago Reply

Great post. Buying more stuff does not lead to fulfillment in life. The faster that people can realize this the better off the world will be. We also need to figure out some way to control our population growth. God… it’s just so obvious that we need a world government.

Wayne Roth

- 7 years ago Reply

Good post John, but I would emphasize in your point 3.) that we have to work much harder on mitigation now or there will be no future reversing of rapidly increasing SLR and extreme weather events. Adaption is secondary to mitigation. There is no stopping a warmer planet in the future without massive mitigation efforts now.

Here is what Dr. Don Wuebbles said about this in his climate presentation for Judge Alsup’s Climate Tutorial on March 21, just a month ago.

DR. WUEBBLES [from earlier]: And the evidence strongly indicates it’s largely happening because of human experience.

And that the climate will continue to change over the coming decades, no matter what we do. But certainly our choices for the future could make a strong impact on just how large those changes are.

In fact, that’s probably the single largest factor, as we look at those scenarios once again that you’ve already seen several times today.

Dr. Wuebbles is not talking about adaptation, he’s talking about mitigation. Our choices today are the single most important factor in how disastrous the coming climate events will be. We cannot prevent many of the coming climate changes, but we could still soften their impact, their pain.

The only way to accomplish this is to end our addiction to carbon based energy as rapidly as possible.

Nicholas J

- 7 years ago Reply

A nice read, sir. I am still of the opinion that life would be better with less dependency on other animals and that every argument to this end is a valid one because it is about character building. With the inevitability of losing land and then expecting to continue to farm animals for the majority to consume of their products there is surely as much an issue for future planning as real estate? In terms of diet I know I have found a purpose in plant-based living that impacts on health, environmental health, morality, ethics and tastefulness. It is within understanding, and outcomes are there to be grasped day after day. It is a good way for a 20th Century man-product to have gained.

I live relatively close to a tidal river with two others feeding it above the tidal effect at current sea level. Around here, therefore, there are two river valleys within three miles of where I live that connect to that river, which flows into the English Channel as the River Tamar flowing past the naval dockyard and out at Plymouth Sound. I don’t know the details of gradient and distance that will determine the outcome of a three metre rise but I consider to myself what impact rising sea level will have in my lifetime to the land around me, the roads, the town where I live and those living closest to it, of which I may be one depending on how it turns out. Dartmoor National Park is close by, too, above us in height from sea level with all the tributaries that run off it. All in all, I wonder from what you have said over the weeks whether the next twenty years, even, will make where I live unliveable.

I don’t hear anything locally about this, but this isn’t to say there is no discussion, but it goes to sum up that gaining momentum on the subject of sea level rise tends not to rest with ordinary folks like me and asking around could be construed as fear-mongering, at best.

John

- 7 years ago Reply

To your question about what things will be like in twenty years: It is highly likely that sea level will only be modestly higher in that time period. It will likely follow an exponential curve over this century, with secondary cycles following the 19 year tidal epochs. Extreme weather such as hurricanes and heavy rainfall are harder to predict, but are likely to change even further from what we assumed to be “normal.”