Century Perspective May Be Chinese Advantage
Confucius, the famous Chinese philosopher said,
“A man who does not plan long ahead, will find trouble right at his door.”
Many Chinese can see the sweep of history in centuries, not surprising as their history traces back to the first dynasty, some four thousand years ago. That’s quite a contrast to the United States, whose roots go back one tenth as far. Most Americans think in terms of quarters and years; even a decade seems almost too far ahead to plan.
The Chinese long-time horizon, allowing them to see the arc of centuries, may be a great advantage in terms of planning and adapting for rising sea level, climate change, and the energy transition the world must now face. That thought came to me a few days ago when I was on a panel on China Television (CGTN), a current affairs program, appropriately called “The Heat.” [link]
The focus of the show was Extreme Weather, looking at the connection with climate change and human influence, specifically fossil fuels. To highlight some of the points made by the other three panelists:
“The Heat” China Global TV August 17, 2018
Myron Ebell, representing the Competitive Enterprise Institute (U.S.), defended coal and said it must continue to be a pillar of energy policy and that concerns about warming temperatures are exaggerated. He said that the only way to meet growing energy demand was to continue to rely on coal and that even for the long-term, that cheap energy is essential to grow the economies in developed and developing countries, particularly China.
Jennifer Turner, China environment expert, at The Wilson Center (U.S.) countered that China is leaning forward, not only planning ahead, but already shifting away from fossil-fuel based energy. Their concerns include global warming, as well as environmental concerns like air quality and human health effects. In fact, they have stopped building new coal-fired power plants and are cancelling plants under construction.
Wael Hmaidan, Director of the Climate Action Network (Lebanon) , described what is happening in the developing world beyond China. Examples included the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, developing countries that were planning and pursuing renewable energy as national priorities.
Coming back to the point I started with above –– the contrast in Chinese and American time horizons –– I have been thinking about that since the show. Longer term thinking is not really limited to China. In fact most Asian cultures seem to consider longer time horizons. Many European and Middle Eastern cultures are also rather comfortable with the “century view.” It is American audiences that seem uncomfortable looking out fifty years and beyond, with some notable exceptions. Those groups that can focus on the long-term include strategic planners in the military; architects and professional planners, where they are given permission to plan for the long term; and those dealing with historic preservation. Generally speaking, I find these types of professionals are able to look ahead to the second half of this century, to a world that cannot co-exist with unlimited use of fossil fuel.
That is in contrast to most audiences in the US that want to limit the time horizon to somewhere from five to ten years. The problem is that extreme sea level rise, on the order of several feet or a meter, is almost impossible to occur in the next ten years. However, by mid-century, in twenty or thirty years, we could easily get a foot of higher sea level, maybe two, or even three, levels that will cause catastrophic change. The actual height depends how the Antarctic glaciers actually collapse. In turn that depends on what we do with fossil fuel energy in the years ahead., and of course that is a big unknown.
Even with their longer-term view, China is not immune to the incredible challenge to adapt to climate change. Severe flooding now happens in the vast bay known as the Pearl River Delta (“PRD”), the industrial region facing Hong Kong. Shanghai is one of the world’s key ports and is about as vulnerable as Miami — but far larger in size and population.
The truth is that we all need to consider and encourage better long-term thinking, in terms of energy supply, adapting to higher sustained sea level, and the other characteristics of a warmer planet. To begin proper adaptation measures now, we must be willing to look out thirty years, so that we can see the scale of change, and plan appropriately.
This is not some future problem. With a nod to that Confucius quotation, the climate disasters now making headlines, suggest that the trouble is already “right at our door.”