BP’s Gulf Disaster
The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is not specifically related to climate change — the stated focus of this blog. Yet given its overwhelming presence in the news, and its extreme impact on the oceans, and potentially on ocean policy, I want to comment. Apart from the obvious — that the spill is huge, terrible, and was likely avoidable — I have a few perspectives, including one that may be good news, and one that’s not.
Unquestionably, this is a catastrophe, and there will be some long-term impacts. But let’s avoid exaggeration. Some are already saying the entire Gulf of Mexico — a huge body of water — is “dead.” It is not, nor do I believe that will happen. There is a lot at stake here. We should avoid exaggeration, which undermines credibility. The reality will be bad enough.
The local fishing industry and tourism will likely be devastated for years. Many aspects of the damage have not yet even garnered attention. For example, Florida is the epicenter for the recreational scuba industry, which depends on clean, healthy reefs. Both oil coming ashore and remaining offshore (and even underwater) pose terrible threats. This type of devastation is potentially a terrible blow to a region still recovering from Hurricane Katrina. I do believe one can say the damage will be long-term in the marshes and swamps, important areas for the breeding of marine life. But equally true, in several years we will also be surprised at the resilience of nature.
To expand on that concept: the sea has truly AMAZING powers to recuperate and recover, if it’s given a chance. Just to cite one particularly relevant example: In her 1995 book, “Sea Change” noted marine biologist, Dr. Sylvia Earle devotes an entire chapter to describing the massive 1991 oil spill in the Persian Gulf. It was deliberately created by Saddam Hussein as Iraq retreated from the disastrous war against Kuwait. At about 10 million barrels, it is the largest oil spill in history. While the BP spill is America’s largest spill, presently it is only about 10% of the size of the Persian Gulf spill.
The description Sylvia wrote 15 years ago is compelling. In her unique style she characterizes the marine life, and the interrelationships of the ecosystem. She describes the myriad impacts of the oil. She does it with a scientist’s objectivity and wonder, punctuated with editorial observations about what we’re doing to this ocean planet.
I got a fascinating update from her in January of this year, when she and I had dinner. Somehow the subject of the ocean’s ability to recuperate came up. We agreed that it was magical. Sylvia referred back to the 1991 oil spill in the Persian Gulf. She had returned to dive some of the same locations a decade later and was astounded that in many places, all the evidence of the massive spill was gone! It’s not to say that everything went back to normal, but just that you can’t overstate the recovery powers of the ocean. That regenerative capacity is what gives each of us hope for the future. That’s the “good news.”
Regarding the current BP gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, what may be even worse than the news we are hearing, is that we MAY not yet see the “mother lode” of oil that has entered the water. Indications are that only a minor percentage of the oil has come to the surface. In the last few days, there is more evidence of undersea plumes of oil. I have an uneasy feeling that there also might be some very large quantities of oil hiding somewhere in the “eddy currents”, which I will explain in a moment.
Please look at the map below. Just to orient you the land is white: in the upper left is New Orleans; the lower right is Cuba, with the west coast of Florida on the right side of the map.
The ocean is depicted in different shades of yellow to red, representing the various sea surface temperatures (SST). If you look closely in the central region, you will see three separate eddy currents. These are roughly circular currents, like whirlpools.
In terms of overall circulation, the water comes up into the Gulf of Mexico from the south. Some combines with water in the eddy currents, and then moves between Cuba and Florida creating the Gulf Stream.
The oil spill is depicted as brown, from just off New Orleans, to the northern eddy current — where the darkest, densest area sits. It’s challenging to grasp the vastness of a large body of water like the Gulf of Mexico. Even millions of gallons of oil can be hard to detect in water that’s a mile deep
Two dimensional maps are deceptive, just showing the surface. Possibly some large volumes of oil are just slowly swirling around well below the surface, held captive by the currents. Oil has a different density than seawater. While that usually causes it to float to the surface, the recently discovered underwater plumes demonstrate that the tendency to float, can be overwhelmed by currents.
Thus my concern is that an eddy might be capturing tens of thousands of barrels that we have not yet even sighted, and will suddenly release it. The destination or impact area for such a large quantity of oil is impossible to know. It could be within the Gulf of Mexico, or anywhere along the path of the Gulf Stream, which runs from Cuba, along the entire eastern seaboard of the US, across the North Atlantic to Europe.
The point is that it’s not yet possible to know how this dramatic tragedy will unfold; there could be some big surprises beyond the stories now in the news. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) and numerous research organizations have of ships evaluating what’s happening to the oil. For more info, www.noaa.gov. That will shed some light on it. But for now, the location of the majority of oil that has gone into the Gulf is an enigma.
Let’s hope BP and the engineering firms get the gusher under control soon.
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