John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Last week Congress abandoned plans to pass a comprehensive energy and climate bill. This is a very sad state of affairs for this ocean planet. The repercussions of that failure are much longer term than one might expect. Thomas L Friedman applied his usual insight and excellent writing in a New York Times Op Ed on July 24, "We're gonna be sorry." In it he accurately shares the blame among President Obama, the Democratic Senate leadership, Republicans, and "us." It is worth reading: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/opinion/25friedman.html.

Rising temperature trends and the dramatically rising level of carbon dioxide have diverse and profound effects. In spite of the facts that humans are land-oriented, the ocean impacts are a good window to the vast impact of changing climate patterns — the first significant change in climate pattern in about 10,000 years. At the risk of oversimplifying:

HIGHER OCEAN TEMPERATURE causes

• rising sea levels from:
  • increased melt rates where glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica enter the ocean,
  • by warming the lower atmosphere melting the top layer of ice sheets and glaciers, and
  • from thermal expansion — as seawater warms it expands actually causing a noticeable rise in sea level.
• coral "bleaching" — a phenomenon causing reefs to die worldwide. It turns out that coral has a rather sensitive high temperature range.

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION is

• the direct effect of greater amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, dissolving in the ocean. It forms a mild carbonic acid, that lowers the alkalinity (effectively the same as making it more acidic). Changing the pH balance of the ocean is already showing effects throughout the food chain, starting with the small algae (phytoplankton) that are the base of the entire ocean ecosystem. Just as plants and vegetables in your garden require a certain alkalinity, so do the plants in the ocean. The increase in carbon dioxide has already significantly lowered the pH level, by as much as 30%. Scientists fear that the higher atmospheric CO₂ levels could change the fundamental ocean chemistry to something that has not existed for tens of millions of years.

For 40 years every consecutive U.S. President, Democrat and Republican, has clearly stated the need for a long term energy policy as a matter of the highest national priority. None has been able to deliver due to shortsighted politics and lobbying.

The problem is the long-term repercussions of the increased heat and CO₂. It is hard to change the ocean temperature and chemistry. It has great stability. Sadly, the corollary is true. Once momentum develops changing the level of heat and pH, it is very hard to reverse the trend. There is a long "lag time" for the ocean to respond to changes in the atmosphere. A good metaphor is the fact that it takes more than 2 miles to stop a supertanker due to the momentum. It takes hundreds of years for the ocean to reach new temperature equalization.

Therefore it is urgent to stop adding further forces of warming and acidification. Our climate is already outside the normal ranges that we have known for centuries. The urgency comes from the LAG TIME of the response to the gradually warming atmosphere, due to the gradually increasing greenhouse gases. There are 2 other lag times.

Society's lag time — businesses, governments, and people — all have a lag time to adjust to new policies. The sooner we establish policies about the use of coal and other energy sources, the sooner we will begin the long, slow process of change. It takes decades to plan and build new power plants. That's why many utilities and the companies that build the generating equipment would like to know what the policies will be for decades ahead; in other words, to know what the US Energy policy, incentives, and fees will be for the next few decades. 

Political lag time is the other issue. Somehow the US Congress is stuck in rules and culture gong back centuries. A few dozen Senators can resist change due to myopic perspectives related to the coal reserves in their state. Interestingly, the late Senator Robert Byrd, from the coal-based state of West Virginia, saw the handwriting on the wall.  He said:

“I believe that the measure that we are being asked to vote upon today is extreme…. As I have pointed out before, to deny the mounting science of climate change is to stick our heads in the sand…. “Finally, mark my words, the regulation of greenhouse gasses is approaching, whether done by Congress or by regulation, despite naysayers who rail about the non-existence of climate change.”

We could use some more statesmen like Byrd. More important, those of us concerned about the future of this ocean biosphere need to make our voices heard. Given the lag time, there is no more urgent investment than a comprehensive energy and climate bill. Tell your Senator. We simply cannot tolerate another 40 years of "lag time."