Solar Cycles and Climate Change?
A recent surge of ‘noise and nonsense’ on the internet is again alleging that global warming is largely affected by solar cycles, such as the 11 year swings associated with “sunspots.”
As the NASA graphic above shows in the white overlay chart, there is indeed a long-recognized 11 year cycle of solar activity. Yet the pattern of warming over the last century simply does not correlate with the 11-year up-down solar cycles.
On the NASA chart below, the faint blue line even more clearly depicts the 11-year solar cycles; the darker blue line is the average trend line of those 11-year cycles. Compare that to the red line of warming temperature; no correlation.
The solar cycle proponents, who want to distract us from human-caused warming go even farther, to predict that we could have a “solar grand minimum” a really large cooling, starting in 2020, lasting perhaps fifty years.
They suggest it will be like the long period of low solar activity last noticed from 1645 – 1715 known as the Maunder Minimum. Their point is that this will start a global cooling period, eliminating the need to worry about the current carbon dioxide driven warming.
It’s very questionable that such a low period is about to start. Even in the unlikely case that we do enter another multi-decade low solar period ––like the one three centuries ago –– it would not stop the current warming.
The measured warming force from the added greenhouse gases, is much greater than the reduced solar energy. We have already warmed one degree Celsius this century, almost two degrees Fahrenheit. We are now on path for double that at least, hence the “2 degree target” you probably have heard about. In comparison the Maunder Minimum is estimated to have caused only one quarter of a degree Celsius cooling. (Feulner & Rahmstorf , 2010)
As the effects of the warming and destabilizing climate become more obvious and ominous, those who strongly do not want to believe that humans are the cause, will “grab at straws” to validate their position.
It’s clear that alleging a new “solar grand minimum” that will begin in 2020, is just a tactic to cause confusion or delayed remedial action; it’s pseudo-science.
Every year that we delay the two top priorities, 1) to aggressively work to slow the warming, and 2) to begin to adapt to changes like rising sea level, means we will slide farther down the slippery slope making it even harder to regain stability.