John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Earth is on track to warm to dangerous levels. Greenhouse gases must be brought under control.

Today is the 47th Earth Day. Since its inception in 1970, this annual day highlights concern for “the environment” with all its myriad aspects from clean air and water, to other species, to limiting plastic pollution, reducing waste and using recycled materials. All those efforts are great and real. And certainly this year, concern for climate change will be a big focus on Earth Day.

Of course, we need more than one feel-good day of effort. The scale and scope of climate change demands that we stop acting as if combatting it is optional, as if it were just one among many on our list of big concerns. The fact is that whether we realize it or not, we are now in a struggle for survival.

Some advocate an effort on the scale of the Manhattan Project, which developed the atomic bomb and was the turning point in the second world war. That secretive program took 130,000 people and two billion dollars (twenty seven billion in today’s dollars). While an interesting model, I believe it still would not be big enough to combat global warming and rising sea level.  Rather, we should look to the larger war effort itself, which was an “all in” effort, across societies.

I was not around during the second world war, but it is clear that it changed daily life. With routine sacrifices from conserving scraps of aluminum and steel for the war effort, to building more than two thousand “liberty ships” at the rate of three a day, it was not life as usual. That was a fight for survival between two visions of humanity, two concepts of government, and two ideologies. The war took the highest possible priority.

Our climate challenge today is not like a battle with a tyrant and his army bent on power and seizing control. We don’t have to go to “war” against someone with violence. We need to come together and join forces to battle a common enemy or threat, working at the level of wartime effort. But in this “war” all countries need to engage and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy on an urgent basis — far beyond the current effort.

Graphic from www.climatescoreboard.org

Over the last century or so –– the industrial age–– we have warmed the planet about one and a half degrees F. As depicted on this thermometer in green, a goal has been set to keep the warming to no more than 2.8 degrees, or about double what’s happened so far. Even that amount will radically change our climate. On our current path of “business as usual” we are on track for much worse, headed for nearly 8 degrees F warmer – the yellow line. What is poorly understood is that even if we achieve all the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement a year and a half ago, the world would only keep the warming to 6 degrees F, the blue line.

That may not sound like a lot, but to put it in perspective, one hundred twenty thousand years ago, temperatures reached about one degree warmer than present, and enough ice melted, that global sea level rose more than twenty feet.

As I showed in my graph and explanation two weeks ago, we have entered new territory, heading much warmer, having broken out of the natural climate pattern for the last few million years. Greenhouse gases — notably carbon dioxide, global average temperature, and sea level have tracked together for millions of years due to some fundamental principles of physics as I explained in that blog post. All three of those are now headed ominously higher.

If we allow global average temperature to raise six or eight degrees, our species may even go extinct. It really is that profound. All species have a range of temperature tolerance. It’s easy to forget the example from 2003 when temperatures in Europe exceeded 104 degrees F (40 degrees C) for a few weeks. Seventy thousand people died from the heat.

Changing weather patterns also pose grave implications for agriculture and food supply worldwide. And of course there is the rapidly increasing rate of ice melting, particularly in the Arctic, and West  Antarctica. That will cause higher sea level, putting vast coastal areas underwater.

And the issue goes beyond simple temperature. The acidity level of the ocean is falling dramatically, another effect of too much carbon dioxide. Changing the ocean chemistry, to being more acidic, will have profound impacts starting with the decline in the phytoplankton, which is the base of the food chain and is responsible for generating fifty percent of our oxygen. Ocean acidification (declining pH) also threatens shellfish and corals that will not be able to form in a more acid environment.

In my presentations and briefings, I point that we have two urgent priorities. First we must slow the warming ASAP. This requires reducing greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, even beyond the Paris Agreement. Putting a price on carbon would be a good place to start.

Second, we need to begin adapting to rising sea level rising level, which can no longer be stopped.  However, slowing the warming will slow rate of sea level rise.

Combatting global warming is going to require a wartime-like effort to get ourselves off of fossil fuels as the highest priority. The technology for renewables to achieving zero omissions by mid-century is now within our grasp, if we embark on a war-like scale and effort. Our goal must be to get carbon dioxide (CO2) levels heading down, back towards 350 PPM (parts per million) as soon as possible. That means doubling down on renewable energy and even trying innovative ways to pull the CO2 out of the atmosphere, known as CDR (carbon dioxide removal).

So what can the average person do? Individually, we can reduce emissions with an electric vehicle, use a bicycle, change light bulbs, etc. But the reality is that our efforts are little more than setting a good example. Even if everyone did those efforts it would not solve the problem of global warming. It will take worldwide governmental action, to ensure that we leave most of the remaining fossil fuels in the ground. That requires action by the US, China, India, Russia, Europe and the rest of the world in a cooperative effort. It will take the largest coordinated global effort in history, frankly much larger than the Manhattan project or even putting a man on the moon. The closest example is what it took to win a world war.

We really have no choice if we care about leaving a livable planet for future generations. To do less would be irresponsible, immoral, and a sin against the sanctity of life, and every version of religion of which I am aware.

ACTION: Tell the President and Congress

To get us into “war mode” we must make clear to our elected political leaders how important this issue is to us and our future voting. It is quite simple really. No matter where one lives in the US or internationally, send an e-mail, Tweet, letter, or leave a phone message to your elected leaders. In the US this means three messages: your senator, your congressman, and the President. Here is an example:

My name is ___________ and I live at ____________.  

• I believe that climate change is not a hoax, but a very real threat.
• We need to reduce global warming as one of the very top priorities.
• It demands that the US becomes a leader in a global wartime-like effort.
• My children and your children will judge us by what we do on this grave threat.
• From now on, this issue will strongly affect how I vote.

Earth Day is a great opportunity to do this political outreach. Have your friends and family do it as well. Tell your network. Numbers count to elected officials. Do it today –– whether you read this on Earth Day or not.

Happy Earth Day!