More Bad News From the “Doomsday Glacier”
You may have seen articles or television coverage recently about “The Doomsday Glacier”, a nickname for Thwaites. Here’s why it is such a huge concern.
Think of sea level as being represented by a swimming pool. Slowly walking towards that pool is an elephant getting ready to go for a swim. It’s easy to imagine that elephant getting into the pool, causing the water level to rise and likely to overflow the pool.
That is what’s going to happen when Thwaites slides into the ocean. This one glacier, Thwaites is about the size of Florida or Great Britain. If, or rather when, it fully slides into the sea, global sea level would rise about a foot and a half (50 cm), causing serious sustained flooding in every coastal community. Flooding may not even be a useful term, because it implies that the water will recede sooner or later. Higher sea level from melting glaciers will not recede.
Thwaites is in the news again, because scientists have been seeing more and more ominous signs of melting and movement in that part of Antarctica, year by year, for the last several decades. It is now moving into the sea at a speed of two miles a year (3 km) – very fast for a glacier – and it’s accelerating.
In 2012 in my book “High Tide On Main Street: Rising Sea Level and the /Coming Coastal Crisis” I highlighted the concern about this particular glacier (page 59). That was based on a 1978 paper by glaciologist Dr. John Mercer, who predicted that the six large West Antarctic glaciers – including Thwaites – would be the cause of ten feet of global sea level rise. He expected that to start in about fifty years. That was forty two years ago….
The physics are remarkably simple. The oceans have already warmed one degree Celsius, almost two degrees Fahrenheit during the industrial era. A warmer planet will have smaller ice sheets and glaciers. Less ice on land, means higher global sea level, moving the coastline inland.
The concern about Thwaites is so serious that American and British scientists have just started a five year $50 million dollar research expedition to get more information. The BBC (British Broadcasting Company) just published an excellent article with many great illustrations. It is definitely worth a read [click here for link].
Like earthquakes and tsunamis, it is difficult for us to prepare for the threat of rising sea level in advance. Nonetheless this is a threat we should take very seriously. The elephant is flexing its muscles and stretching. All signs are that it’s getting ready to go for a swim. Humor aside, this is very serious.
As noted in the article, even those scientists sounding the alarm bell about Thwaites agree it would take decades, possibly a century, for it to fully slide into the sea, raising sea level the full height of a foot and a half. Although that is good news for having some time for adaptation, it’s important to realize that even when only a quarter of this glacier slides into the ocean, it will raise sea levels 4 to 5 inches globally. Even that amount will be disruptive for many low lying regions.
Unfortunately the other five neighboring giant glaciers of West Antarctica could well parallel the path of Thwaites and are also being monitored. Then there are similar glaciers on East Antarctica and the big one in Greenland, that is far more advanced in terms of melting. All are poised to raise sea levels.
The handwriting is on the wall. If we are smart, we will start adaptation before the water rises. All eyes should be on the elephants in the room.