John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

Accepting, planning, and adapting to sea level rise (SLR) may be the hardest change that humans have ever had to do. While I often describe the science and what is happening in the Arctic and Antarctica, it may be worth looking at it purely from the psychological angle.

What is preventing us from recognizing the reality that the warming planet, will have less ice, and a higher ocean level, which will put lots of land underwater rather permanently?

Though not a formal study, from my experience giving hundreds of presentations and briefings to thousands of people over the last six years, I have identified seven perspectives that account for our collective denial or inaction:

1. DISBELIEF:     Sea level has not been higher than the present level for 100,000 years, so we just don’t take the prospect seriously; it does not seem possible this century.
2. ATTACHMENT:     Emotionally and financially, we are attached to the coastline being where it has been for roughly five thousand years, almost all of recorded human history. The thought of losing our coastal communities, our beaches, our homes is just too painful.
3. TOO DISTANT:     Imminent flooding from storms, rainfall/runoff, and even tsunamis could happen in the very near future, so they command our attention. In contrast sea level rise occurs without drawing our attention, like a constant drip that will fill a bucket.
4. COGNITIVE DISSONANCE:     Adjusting to the prospect that sea level will be even just 10 feet (3 meters) higher, is so arresting, that it takes time to fully process – for many people it can take years to come to terms with the concept.
5. TECHNO-FALLACY:     We have come to believe technology can do almost anything, as in the fields of electronics, medicine, or space travel. However those technologies are irrelevant to stop the rise of sea level in the foreseeable future.
6. WIDE-RANGING FORECASTS:     The precise rate of SLR cannot be determined over the course of the century, so the diverse range of estimates makes planning and adaptation even harder. It also plants doubt that perhaps the models are wrong and it won’t be so bad.
7. GREEN CONFUSION:    Preparing for higher sea level gets confused with such other issues as reducing greenhouse gas emissions (to slow the warming) and other environmental and sustainability issues, all of which are less threatening and disruptive than adapting to much higher sea level. Understandably people tend to focus on things they can control and that can have immediate effect.

Five or ten feet of SLR is now probably unavoidable over the next century. If we are aggressive enough with slowing the warming, hopefully we can keep it to the lower end of the range.

The sooner we begin adapting to the new era of rising sea level, the easier and cheaper it will be. In fact, there is a positive, “glass half full” perspective to planning and adapting to inexorable sea level rise. Our challenge is to re-engineer the coastline, in a way that continues to allow for further adaptation as the sea level likely continues to rise even further. Though painful and challenging, the adaptation to SLR will be the greatest economic driver this century.

If we are to adequately prepare for rising sea level, we must recognize these mental blocks and work around them. Awareness is the first step. It may be helpful to get the mental blocks on the table.